After 11 years or moral crusading the Howard Government has successfully corralled fundamentalists and evangelicals congregations.
Of course, there are religious voters who Kevin Rudd has successfully shaken from Howard's electoral tree over issues like IR, global warming and Iraq. But they are too few in number, too disparate in their outlook and have too little influence beyond their churches, to compare with the numbers, the sense of purpose and the broader social influence amongst family, friends, neighbours, employees and the general community of the gay voters I've described.
As a result, in electorates like Franklin, tolerance and fair treatment are replacing "traditional family values" as standards by which the community judges its progress and from which its identity is formed.
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2007 will be the first federal election in which Australia's gay demographic shift will have an impact.
Electoral strategists may be slow to pick up on this impact. We may continue to see Kevin Rudd make the mistake of shadowing Howard on gay rights.
But local politicians like Vanessa Goodwin are not so hidebound. They are translating the demographic shift into an electoral one.
We can only hope that this translates, in turn, into national policy-making which truly reflects the values of diversity, equality and a fair-go.
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