The 1983 and 2007 Elections: Some Parallels

As things stand, these three power centres cannot all get what they want, and the signs are that China and Russia are willing to ally themselves to resist American power, perhaps with Iran. India is wavering, but as its economy grows so will its capacity to project power into the Indian Ocean.

Australia, needless to say, faces some tough choices. Its current prosperity is based in the Chinese and to a lesser extent Indian booms, and Asian money is increasingly influential in north west WA. However, we have a long standing alliance with the US. Just what we’d do in, say, a Sino-American stand-off over Taiwan is an interesting question.
The Hawke government’s choices weren’t so tricky. Throughout the latter half of the 1980s the US put growing pressure on the Soviet Union, notably through Star Wars, which eventually bankrupted it and ended the Cold War. Australia stuck with the US throughout, although nervously at times, such as when the US wanted to test ballistic missiles nearby. Although the Cold War threatened nuclear annihilation for all, direct Soviet influence in our region was minimal.

With the American economy in trouble, epitomised by the crumbling dollar, and an ascendant China, Russia and India, our choices maybe more complicated this time.

There are a few other parallels perhaps: the ascendant Australian Democrats then and the Greens now; Tasmanian wilderness then and now; uranium mining then and now; an ambitious Liberal treasurer then and now…

In 1983 there was a sense that Australia was getting out of kilter, and a fresh approach was needed, and Labor washed in on a tide of disillusion and hope for change.

Maybe 2007 will be a re-run of 1983, and we’ll see a hungry ALP claim the electoral heights. Maybe Kevin Rudd will be the new Bob Hawke, his popularity giving him a real mandate for change. Maybe the Liberals, incumbent nowhere and riven by ideological divides, will fall apart…

Or maybe Howard will pull a belated rabbit out the hat and cling to power.

One thing is certain: the challenges facing whoever becomes Prime Minister are much more daunting than those confronting Hawke and Keating a quarter of a century ago, and how the country deals with them will set the scene for many decades to come.