Fun in the sun: a summer election for Costello PM?

Despite the Howard Government’s dreadful standing in the opinion polls, most political “hardheads” keep publicly scoffing at the idea of a Liberal leadership change. They insist that the PM remains highly competitive, and/or that a switch to Peter Costello would be futile.

In any case, they say, it’s too late to do anything now - the election must be held in October or November.

All of this conventional wisdom is suspect, starting with the key issue of timing. Legally, the election can be delayed until early next year.

The “life” of the current House of Representatives does not expire until November 15, 2007 (three years after its first sitting day, which was November 16, 2004). The Governor-General then has a maximum of 10 days in which to issue writs for a general election of the next House. The relevant provisions in the Constitution are sections 28 and 32.

Once the writs are issued, the election must be held between 33 to 58 days later. And polling day must be a Saturday. These are matters of Commonwealth electoral law.

The upshot is this. The latest possible date for the election is Saturday, January 19, 2008 - over three years and three months since the last one.

There are precedents for such “late” polls. The third House of Representatives was elected on December 12, 1906. It first sat on February 20, 1907 and ran its full term, which expired on February 19, 1910. The election was not held until April 13, 1910.

The federal elections of 1949 and 1972 also took place well over three years after the one previous.

But an election in January? It’s never happened since Federation. Almost every fair dinkum Aussie is in the surf or on the grog, you can hear the “hardheads” chortle.

Certainly, Howard would be ill-advised to leave the election that late. It would look like a desperate attempt to cling to power, and simply annoy people - not least political journalists keen for a summer holiday.

But if Peter Costello were to assume the prime ministership in the next month or two, he could make a credible case for delay. “The country”, you can hear him saying, “needs the maximum amount of time to scrutinise me and my ministry in our new roles”.

In those circumstances the electorate might forgive a poll in January; or, at least, in December. And, in the meantime, anything could happen.

The political dynamics would be instantly transformed. The “it’s time” sentiment that currently seems unstoppable would fade quickly, as the attention of the media and swinging voters switched from Kevin Rudd to Costello PM. Costello would set the agenda. He would be much better placed than Howard to re-make the Government’s image on issues such as climate change. The APEC meeting in Sydney in September would put him on the international stage.

Of course, a leadership change would carry risks. While a solid majority of Australians approve of Costello’s performance as Treasurer, his poll ratings as alternative PM are well below both Rudd’s and Howard’s.

But those figures are much less relevant than the current two-party preferred numbers. Labor’s lead, rock-solid for months, is unprecedented in size. Howard is struggling in Bennelong. And in the short-term the polls may get worse rather than better, given the Haneef debacle and the likelihood of another interest rate rise.

The “hardheads” in the media are talking up the Government’s prospects because they want a real horse-race. Some have been scarred by over-confident predictions in the totally different circumstances of 2004. But Kevin Rudd is not Mark Latham.

Australia’s political situation is akin to that in Britain in the lead-up to the May 1997 election. A tired and scandal-ridden Conservative administration was way past its use-by date. The electorate was not so much angry as contemptuous and bored. Apolitical voters retained some residual respect for the PM, John Major, a dour scrapper like Howard. But New Labour’s intelligent and presentable young leader (Tony Blair) gave waverers all the reassurance they needed, just as Rudd seems to have done here. For months the polls showed a Blair landslide in the offing, and it duly occurred. His huge parliamentary majority held up at two subsequent elections.

The really tough Liberal Party operators must know that if Howard stays as PM, the Coalition is doomed. Not just at this election, but most likely at the next one as well. Howard may not be the whole problem, but he certainly isn’t the answer.

Costello may not be either, but he’s their best hope of a respectable result. If the Liberal Party bites the bullet soon and installs him as PM, it could make for a strange sort of summer.