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Lapsed Liberals - the ebbing tide

By Graham Young - posted Monday, 30 July 2007


While the ACTU has been running a concerted campaign on IR laws, it is only when asked what would make them hesitate about voting for Howard that these lapsed liberals put IR at the top of the list; and then it is a very long list where many issues get almost as many mentions. This suggests that on its own it is not a major concern, but if they have to provide a justification for their voting intention, then it becomes more prominent. Yet even then, a word search shows that IR ties with Iraq for the number of mentions, and both of them are very much a minority concern.

The major theme that runs through these swinging voters’ hesitations in voting for Howard is a perception that he is arrogant and has lost touch with “Strugglesville”. For each of them it seems to be embodied in a slightly different issue. Again, this is a soft motivation, because when they are asked what makes them hesitate in thinking of voting for Rudd, arrogance is a strong theme. This is underlined by his “mini-me” strategy where voters see him as being just a Howard clone.

Even stronger as a hesitation is Rudd’s lack of experience and a feeling that he does not have the mental toughness to do the job and stand up to his colleagues. As you would expect with a group that normally identifies as Liberal, there is a fair degree of distrust of the Labor Party, another major negative for Rudd.

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Analysis of this group suggests that the election is not yet won by Rudd. A tide which ebbs in one direction will just as easily flow in the other in a few hours time. For Labor to keep hold of them it needs to address a multitude of issues, many of which run counter to others.

By contrast, the negatives about Rudd are all focused in a few areas. It would be relatively easy for the Liberals to craft a few messages that emphasised those negatives and turned the tide, and relatively difficult for Labor to pull them back. If all they are offering is a younger clone of John Howard, then it’s possible voters will decide to stick with the original. After all, they already know its defects.

In fact, if they vote for Howard this election he will be gone in another two years, and then they can get a really clear focus on the future and make a decision between two future leaders who will have had the chance to prove themselves. It’s possible that this election may end up being an audition for the next.

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About the Author

Graham Young is chief editor and the publisher of On Line Opinion. He is executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, an Australian think tank based in Brisbane, and the publisher of On Line Opinion.

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