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'It's the economy, stupid'. Or is it?

By Tim Grau - posted Tuesday, 19 June 2007


That poll has Labor's two-party preferred vote at 53 per cent and the Coalition on 47 per cent, with the Opposition' s primary vote on 42 per cent - two points ahead of the Government.

When it comes to who would make a better prime minister, again, Rudd continues to lead John Howard by a substantial margin.

Federal Voting Intention - Two-Party Preferred

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For many, particularly most government members of Parliament, Labor's ongoing surge has them scratching their heads in wonderment given the booming economy. Prime Minister John Howard even wondered aloud if Australians were playing a joke and Health Minister Tony Abbott questioned if Australians had fallen asleep. For many, particularly most government members of Parliament, Labor's ongoing surge has them scratching their heads in wonderment given the booming economy. Prime Minister John Howard even wondered aloud if Australians were playing a joke and Health Minister Tony Abbott questioned if Australians had fallen asleep.

It is interesting to note that Bill Clinton’s political strategist, James Carville, famously summed up their 1992 Presidential campaign with the slogan: “It’s the economy, stupid”.

Clinton’s dogged focus on this key issue carried him all the way to the White House.

But, with the Australian election only months away and opinion polls consistently showing voter concern about the Howard Government’s industrial relations reforms, is it time to revise Carville’s mantra? Is today’s slogan: ”It’s the workplace, stupid.”?

Despite the strong economic conditions - with record low unemployment, low interest rates, inflation under control, record high consumer confidence and the best received Federal Budget on record - the Howard Government is still copping a belting in all published opinion polls.

Prime Minister John Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello have been at pains to highlight their successful stewardship of the Australian economy. At every opportunity they try to remind voters of the “bad old days of Labor” with high interest rates, budget deficits and record unemployment.

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Opinion poll after opinion poll still has the government well ahead of Labor when voters are asked who is best to handle the economy.

In addition to the recent Galaxy poll, The Age/ACNielson poll published this month had twice as many voters saying the Coalition government is better at managing the economy than the Labor Opposition, with just 30 per cent of voters backing Labor.

Despite these polls and the government playing to its strength as economic managers, voters are moving away from them.

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About the Author

Tim Grau is a one-time adviser to former Queensland Labor premier Wayne Goss and ex-federal attorney-general Michael Lavarch. He is the founding director of the public affairs firm, Springboard Australia.

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Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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