US prestige at stake

Using the World War II analogy, Brzezinski maintains the US prevailed in the postwar defence of democracy in Europe because it successfully pursued a long-term political strategy of uniting its friends and dividing its enemies.

“It soberly deterred aggression without initiating hostilities and all the while, it explored the possibility of negotiating arrangements,” he writes. “A similarly wise strategy of genuinely constructive political engagement is urgently needed [in the Middle East]”.

For the moment, most of the Republican Party leadership is going along with the current Bush strategy, prepared to give the policy of “surging” additional troops into Iraq some time to work. Presidential contender John McCain has even put an optimistic face on the latest developments claiming that things are beginning to turn around there.

However, the grim scenario for any Republican with White House ambitions in 2009 is that they must first capture the Republican heartlands voters - the 30 per cent of the electorate that are still ardently pro-Bush and pro-war. They will go nowhere in the party without them, but have no hope of winning the general election if they cannot then reach out to the more moderate Republican wing and independents.

Maybe the only hope left for Republican contenders is to adopt a moderate Iraq withdrawal policy similar to that of Senator Obama and other Democrats.