Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Aussie politics - game on

By Henry Thornton - posted Monday, 5 February 2007


Governments inevitably get tired and oppositions eventually get their act together. After brave tries by Kim Beazley and a mad gamble with Mark Latham, Kevin Rudd brings solid professionalism to his task of beating John Howard.

He has made an impressive start. Rudd's Labor is well ahead in the opinion polls, and even the punters have finally shortened the odds on a Labor win.

John Howard keeps repeating that the Federal Election later this year will be hard to win, and this time he is sincere.

Advertisement

You can be sure he will pull out every stop, be very active and make many new announcements. The power of incumbency is considerable, and he is a master in its use.

Howard announced a new "war cabinet", using his newly promoted water supremo, Malcolm Turnbull, to "grab" control of the Murray-Darling Basin - concrete evidence of urgent and sensible action.

Howard starts the election year with two bits of good news. It has rained, and many experts are saying the signs are good for further, drought breaking, rain. Recall that Bob Hawke broke the drought after he was elected, Howard may do it ahead of the election.

Then there is inflation, slightly negative in the December quarter, with "underlying" inflation also below expectations and below September's worrying numbers. If this welcome trend continues there will be no further rate hike, and this would remove a threat that might well have given Labor a real chance to win.

This result, incidentally, owes something - in my view quite a bit - to the Government's controversial IR policy reform. Joe Hockey will sell this policy better than his predecessor, and a free kick may come when a respected economic guru gives credit where it is due.

Conversely, if Labor is too zealous about "rollback" in this area, it will lose votes. The "swing group" in this area are Australia's independent contractors, whose numbers include many former union members and firm Labor supporters who have adjusted to life as small businessmen and women.

Advertisement

According to a recent Morgan Poll, 81 per cent of Australian workers say their job is safe and 63 per cent say they could find a new job quickly if they were to become unemployed - both virtually unchanged from a year ago. So much for increased levels of WorkChoices-born job insecurity.

In the US, John Howard's mate, George Bush, is in real trouble with his strategy in the War on Terror under serious scrutiny. So far, Howard has seemed immune to the massive backlash against Bush (and Tony Blair in the UK). If the "coalition of the willing" is on the way out of Iraq by the time of the Federal election here, this will be a plus for the Government.

Howard must cut a quick deal with Washington that will see David Hicks home before long, and the signs are promising. This would be popular.

There needs to be a tough budget. This would minimise the chance of further interest rate hikes and be portrayed as a sign of the Government's continued economic focus and expertise. The overall economy will continued to be supported by the commodity boom and perhaps also the breaking of the drought. Consumer confidence has remained robust and Australians are still world champion consumers.

Expert reader of the public mood, Hugh McKay says: "Straws in the wind. Hints. Possibilities. Nothing more. But it's hard to escape the feeling that the Australian electorate might be emerging from its dreamy period. Sitting up. Taking notice.

"If there is, indeed, a turning of the tide, it appears not to be the result of a single, sudden crisis, but a confluence of several unrelated factors.

"The environment tops the list. Not since the late '80s has there been such widespread openness to the possibility that the planet is sending us a message. A drought that seriously threatens the water supplies of our capital cities, bushfires that rage out of control for months and have seasoned experts shaking their heads, and the scary prospect of global warming all suggest there's an issue here we can't ignore”.

McKay is right about this - a November 2006 Morgan Poll found that, according to Australians aged 14 and over, the most important priority for the leaders of the world was “protecting the environment”.

This is a dramatic change when compared with a similar survey conducted two years prior - in November of 2004, the most important priority for Australians was seen to be the “war on terrorism”, with the environment coming in third. Now, only 9 per cent of Australians believe the “war on terrorism” is the most important priority, and a massive 22 per cent believe the environment to be the leading issue.

To return to Hugh McKay:

Then there's the "values" question. Ironic, really, that politicians have tried to hijack this one: the issues are real enough, but they have nothing to do with defining distinctive Aussie values or deciding whether "mateship" somehow distinguishes us from other cultures (the French, after all, claimed fraternité long before we did). But deeper values-based questions are engaging our attention: have we become too materialistic for our own good? How can we lead more balanced lives? Can we revive our communities and our sense of belonging to them? Is the Australian way of life in danger of being hijacked by American values and culture? ...

Our changing attitudes to David Hicks look like another symptom of a mood shift. An authoritative Newspoll survey has revealed that 71 per cent of us think Hicks should be brought home. Six months ago, I doubt if enough of us were paying attention to have an opinion, but perhaps the fifth anniversary of his incarceration without trial has jolted us. Even our involvement in Iraq seems set to attract renewed, more critical, interest.

Howard has embraced the fact of global warming and the theory that human action is a primary reason for it. Now it is eccentric to be a "climate sceptic" and Nicholas Stern from a position inside the UK Treasury has advanced the debate in the language of economics. He makes the powerful point that strong action now will be much less costly than if remedial action is postponed.

The Age and Sydney Morning Herald recently reported:

A draft UN report forecasting dramatically higher global temperatures and even less rainfall over Australia turns up the heat on the federal government to reveal a climate change policy, the federal opposition says.

It has been widely reported that the draft report, authored by 2,500 scientists and due for release in Paris on February 2, will warn of more heatwaves, floods, droughts and rising seas linked to greenhouse gases released mainly by burning fossil fuels.

The draft for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is expected to predict a temperature rise of two to 4.5 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100 with a "best estimate" of a rise of three degrees celsius.

That is a much bigger rise than previously forecast.

This turns the heat up on the government - what will it do to reduce Australia's relatively high contribution to global warming; the Australian people will not be hoodwinked and the costs of likely actions - embracing nuclear power, limiting road and air travel and air conditioning (for example) and water use by raising the cost of fuel, electricity and water - will not be tolerated unless they are sold very well indeed.

Howard's best chance would to cut a deal with Rudd on a bipartisan approach, but this is so far outside standard political norms as to seem virtually impossible.

Kevin Rudd has sensibly embraced a traditional Labor policy of spending more on education and research. This is clever because people worry about their children's education more than most daily issues but also because education raises both economic efficiency ("productivity") as it increases fairness ("equity").

This is in contrast to many policies that involve a conflict or "trade off" between efficiency and equity - think income tax cuts, as one example, that would improve incentives and therefore economic efficiency but at the cost (arguably) of reducing fairness.

Kevin Rudd has also cleverly begun positioning himself as the moderate man as opposed to Howard the extremist. Howard has been discombobulated by this and has come out swinging, his climate change initiative being the first of many Laborish initiatives he will embrace in 2007. Indeed, I confidently predict that Kevin Rudd will be able to claim a lot of influence on government policy even without winning government - the cold comfort of a successful opposition.

I should finish with my prediction. I expect John Howard to retain government. There will be a real struggle and Kevin Rudd will bring Labor to a far stronger position, poised to win next time round. My main reason is the importance of economic prosperity - why change a government that has presided over a decade of unprecedented prosperity?

This is the question that will resonate in many minds as they enter the ballot box in 2007.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

30 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Henry Thornton (1760-1815) was a banker, M.P., Philanthropist, and a leading figure in the influential group of Evangelicals that was known as the Clapham set. His column is provided by the writers at www.henrythornton.com.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Henry Thornton

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of Henry Thornton
Article Tools
Comment 30 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy