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The political outlook in Australia in 2007 and beyond

By David Flint - posted Wednesday, 10 January 2007


For ALP voters, the results were: Abbott 13 per cent, Costello 24 per cent, Nelson 9 per cent, and Turnbull 20 per cent with 34 per cent uncommitted.

The Sunday Telegraph says the result is a “surprise blow” to Mr Turnbull's opponents, who, it said, have been critical of his rapid progress up the political ladder. But the poll was only of 596 New South Wales voters, and the margin of error was not published. In any event the leader is not directly elected by the people, but by the federal Liberal politicians, so a poll of voter attitudes in one state is not directly relevant.

The poll is interesting, but probably indicates little more than that Mr Turnbull is recognised by NSW voters - still a distinct advantage for a politician.

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In the meantime, Malcolm Turnbull, now a parliamentary secretary to the prime minister, is likely to be elevated to the front bench this summer, a remarkable rise for a first term politician. The Telegraph recalled that Mr Costello was critical of Mr Turnbull in the lead-up to last year's budget after Mr Turnbull campaigned strongly for tax cuts. But Mr Turnbull has received strong praise from Mr Howard. This was despite Mr Turnbull’s strong personal attack on the Prime Minister when he conceded defeat in the 1999 republican referendum.

Mr Turnbull won the seat of Wentworth in 2004, after defeating the former Liberal Party president, long-term constitutional monarchist and “moderate” Peter King in a preselection which saw record numbers of new members drafted into Liberal Party branches.

Mr King then stood as an independent. A curious feature of that election was the decision made by the leader of a monarchist association to campaign for Mr Turnbull, which led to his being pressed by leading members of that association to write a letter to a local newspaper explaining this was a personal initiative, and was nothing to do with the monarchist group.

As a result of the recent redistribution, Wentworth has become more marginal. But without a strong nation wide swing against the Coalition, it would probably still be held by Mr Turnbull who has the advantage of being a high profile member.

He has shown himself to be pragmatic, playing down the republic but turning up at the low key parliamentary forum on the republic, and not only renouncing his previous commitment for flag change but now flying the Australian flag with the zealotry of the convert.

Notwithstanding his conversion to Catholicism, he cast his vote with the small “l” liberals on recent “conscience” issues about the abortion drug RU486 and stem cell research.

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(On the RU496 issue, Mr Turnbull voted in favour of two conservative amendments, but when these were defeated voted to support the Bill . He took the unusual course of rising after the vote to say: “I just want to record that, the amendments having been defeated, I support the bill - if that just could be recorded.”)

This small “l” approach - no doubt one that he believes is correct - will endear him to the “doctors wives”: those wealthy, normally Liberal voting, constituents who oppose the government’s position on such matters as refugees, Guantanamo Bay and so on, and who are well represented not only in Wentworth, but in the older Liberal electorates in Sydney and Melbourne. This will also endear him to the inner city elites who vote Labor or Green, which is illustrated in the higher Labor support he attracted in the Galaxy poll.

Except for one comment dismissing the impact of an interest rate rise, he seems to have managed to ensure that his wealth is not an Achilles heel. This is evidence of good public relations skills, for example allowing himself to be photographed using public transport. He has shown himself to be superbly skilled in ensuring that his presence, if not his views, receives widespread and unusually uncritical media coverage.

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About the Author

David Flint is a former chairman of the Australian Press Council and the Australian Broadcasting Authority, is author of The Twilight of the Elites, and Malice in Media Land, published by Freedom Publishing. His latest monograph is Her Majesty at 80: Impeccable Service in an Indispensable Office, Australians for Constitutional Monarchy, Sydney, 2006

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