Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Why John Howard will win next year's federal election

By James McConvill - posted Wednesday, 25 October 2006


Between 1949 and 1972 was a period of uninterrupted government at a federal level. Unemployment was historically low, averaging about 2 per cent. Inflationary pressures were also non-existent.

It was not until the start of the 1970s that unemployment began to rise and inflation also became a problem. From 1972-73 to 1980-81, unemployment kept rising: the average rate jumped to about 7 per cent. By 1972, the inflation rate had also leapt to above 7 per cent. With this combination, the long reign of conservative government ended in December 1972.

But the election of a Labor government federally was short-lived. Unemployment continued to worsen between 1972 and 1975 and inflation went through the roof, reaching 17.6 per cent in March 1975. Gough Whitlam was voted out of office at the end of 1975.

Advertisement

Unemployment continued to rise during the Fraser Government, but it stayed in power until March 1983 thanks to a trend downwards in inflation from 1975 to 1982.

But inflationary pressures set in again, with the inflation rate hitting 12.5 per cent in September 1982. With unemployment reaching 9.7 per cent in February 1983, the Fraser Government lost the federal election.

The Hawke-Keating Labor Government was in power for 13 years. Between 1983 and 1990, the unemployment rate fell from 10 per cent to below 6 per cent (5.8 per cent in January 1990), holding back any change in government from inflationary pressures and rising interest rates (which were about 17 per cent at the time of the 1990 election).

After the 1990 election, Australia went into recession. By February 1993, unemployment had reached 10.8 per cent and everyone, including the Labor Party, thought the Hawke-Keating Government was over. The 1993 election was unwinnable for the then prime minister, Paul Keating.

But Keating won. Why? Although unemployment was at record high levels, inflation had dropped significantly. In March 1993, the inflation rate was about 1 per cent. Between 1993 and 1996, unemployment fell to 8.1 per cent, still historically high. But by December 1995, the inflation rate had risen to 5.1 per cent. Keating lost in March 1996 in a landslide to John Howard.

While inflationary pressures are now present in the economy (and may cause a further interest rate rise by the Reserve Bank next month), unemployment has continued to fall to a 30-year low of 4.8 per cent.

Advertisement

Accordingly, all that Beazley's Labor can do is sit back and let the election cycle take its course.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. Page 2
  4. All

First published in The Age on October 5, 2006.



Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

43 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

James McConvill is a Melbourne lawyer. The opinions expressed are his personal views only, and were written in the
spirit of academic freedom when James was employed as a university lecturer.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by James McConvill

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of James McConvill
Article Tools
Comment 43 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy