Public’s heart not in it

However much attributable to Coalition policy, the buoyancy of the economy has been crucial to Howard’s success, and has allowed his broader agenda an easy ride. Voters may have been unhappy about Iraq, but that didn’t mean they were prepared to vote for high interest rates.

But higher rates are now a reality and the price of petrol is hurting. Not only will some of the gloss come off the government’s prize economic performance but, as a coinciding rise in rates and embarrassing (for the government) backbench revolt over border protection have together suggested, Howard’s broader conservative agenda could come under increasing fire as the government loses economic credibility.

(And with the summary dispatch of Costello, with his hint of slightly more liberal social policies, still fresh in the memory.)

Anti-conservatives can take heart from overseas, too. The world is seeing the limitations of US neoconservative foreign policy in its failures, notably in Iraq and Lebanon. Pro-Iraq Senator Joe Lieberman’s defeat in a Democratic primary shows that the mood of the US electorate (President Bush’s approval rating has fallen to 33 per cent) is now reflected at the political level. In contrast, Howard’s steadfast allegiance to Bush is starting to look a little too automatic.

The “battlers” are Howard’s as long as the Coalition delivers for the hip pocket. But his brand of conservatism may have already lost the battle for hearts and minds.