Has Labor found a winning coalition?

Presumably recognising this, Beazley's Labor is trying to paint the reforms as intended to irrevocably marginalise unions as a stakeholder in Australian industrial relations. The polls suggest it is working.

However, Labor must tread carefully. The public debate cannot become purely a crude ideological stoush over the primacy of unions in workplace relations. First, Labor will surely lose votes from among the estimated half a million workers on AWAs.

Second, this approach could distract from other elements of the WorkChoice reforms that are unpopular with the broader electorate not just union members. Since Beazley's AWA decision we have heard little about the implications of the Fair Pay commission for minimum wages or the changes to unfair dismissal laws.

Despite Shadow treasurer Wayne Swan's best efforts, little media attention was given to the OECD report which severely undermines the economic case for the Government's reforms.

Beazley's "call to arms" has also emboldened the unions, which entails risks. The unions could best serve Labor by lobbying members and funding campaigning, but they are inserting themselves into the public debate in a way that may prove detrimental.

Combet's observation that he remembered a time when unions ran Australia was a brain explosion. AWU secretary Bill Shorten's call for Labor to consider a referendum constitutionally enshrining collective bargaining rights must have given Labor strategists heartburn. And ACTU president Sharan Burrow's "Scumbag employer" tour couldn't have been more poorly named.

Labor must find a way to target the 1 million votes from union members without alienating non-union members and the broader community. If they can do this, they could pull off a surprise in 2007.