Incumbency is king

The experience with Australian state and federal elections is that the principal determinate of an individual’s vote is how it will affect them personally. There is mounting evidence that the median voter is increasingly self-interested, pragmatic and focused on his or her own welfare.

I am not saying people are not concerned about government probity: merely that when it comes to casting a vote, it is self-interest that wins out, manifesting itself as a vote for the incumbent to keep the good economic times rolling.

The third reason is that it is four years to the next election in Tasmania so anything that happens now will have little bearing on how any future government might be formed. Further, incumbency means it is the government that gains the headlines from taking action and announcing “rescue packages”.

The other side of the incumbency coin is that long periods in opposition lead to frustration. It could be argued that this has contributed to a very fractious situation for federal Labor in the seat of Franklin.

The sitting member, Harry Quick, has the party hierarchy over a barrel and they know it.

The maverick MP wants to retire at the 2007 election, but he also wants a say in who takes his place.

The problem for the party is that if Mr Quick does not get his way, he has the power to follow through on his threat to hand the seat to the Liberals.

Can four terms in opposition have fermented Labor’s internal wranglings and power struggles to the stage that a member would cut his own party’s throat?

Apparently, yes.

If Labor preselect the Electrical Trades Union assistant secretary Kevin Harkins - Harry Quick’s avowed enemy - and if Mr Quick is true to his word, he will immediately resign from the party, sit on the crossbench for the rest of this term and contest the election as an independent.

This is Labor’s horror option. Mr Quick’s large personal following would still not be enough for him to win: rather he would split the Labor vote allowing the Liberal candidate, possibly Vanessa Goodwin, to top the poll on primaries then win on preferences in the cut-up.

So, who will blink first? Is Harry Quick bluffing? Or will the party hard heads back down and endorse a compromise candidate?