The fall of Europe: the bill comes due for leaders who mistook their promises for results

Europe is falling because it has confused managing inherited wealth with the ability to create new wealth. Part of its political leadership turned public spending, the proliferation of rules and extreme regulation, and supposed moral superiority into sufficient credentials to govern. Productivity, solvency, and social cohesion were pushed aside. Today they have returned to collect a bill that no amount of rhetoric can cancel.

On October 24, France recorded 410,000 protesters and 1,314 arrests, according to the Interior Ministry's provisional tally. More than 3,000 businesses were looted, and historic buildings were destroyed. The authorities pointed to the involvement of radical far-left groups in the attacks; Islamic extremists also joined them. In Milan, the looting and destruction of October 17 and 18 caused damage to businesses that Confcommercio estimated at close to one million euros. Something similar happened in Rome. In Barcelona, on October 24, 23 businesses were looted or vandalized, and firefighters were called out 33 times to fires in public streets.

Behind those figures lie destroyed livelihoods, intimidated shopkeepers, and attacks on public property. Anyone running a business is required to pay taxes on time. The security those taxes fund deserves the same promptness. Peaceful protest must be protected, and vandalism punished with the utmost severity. No cause turns someone else's business into spoils.

Fritz Scharpf explained that legitimacy also depends on the ability to solve problems. That is the corrosive contradiction of governments that collect vast sums yet struggle to guarantee services, opportunities, and security. When the protection they promise deteriorates, institutional rhetoric loses credibility.

Responsibility lies with leaders and their decisions

Europe's postwar left deserves unsparing scrutiny for defending spending and debt commitments without securing a sufficient productive base, turning regulations into displays of virtue, and treating too many demands for integration as suspect and unworkable. Responsibility extends to the center-right, which preserved those policies or postponed reform. Since 2004, the European Commission has been headed by leaders of the European People's Party. Changing the letterhead does not erase the bill.

Mancur Olson studied how organized interests accumulate privileges and block adjustments that would benefit society as a whole. His warning sheds light on a Europe where every protection finds defenders and every reform rallies opponents. Citizens pay for agreements they never negotiated. Recognizing problems while systematically postponing their solution amounts to managing decline with good manners.

Welfare requires balanced books

In the second quarter of 2026, gross public debt stood at 139.9% of GDP in Italy, 119.1% in France, 110.2% in Belgium, and 101.4% in Spain, according to Eurostat. The United Kingdom stood at 100.5%, according to the ONS, using a comparable measure. Spain had reduced its ratio year on year. The trajectories differ, but the fiscal constraints facing several major countries are evident.

France spent the equivalent of 57.3% of GDP in 2025 and ended the year with a deficit of 5.1%. The size of the state does not guarantee balanced finances. High debt ties up future resources and leaves less room to respond to crises. Its sustainability depends on growth, interest rates, and budgetary discipline.

For a single person with no children earning the average wage, the OECD calculated a tax wedge in 2025 of 52.5% of labor costs in Belgium and 47.2% in France, compared with the organization's average of 35.1%. This includes taxes and contributions paid by employees and employers. Such a burden demands results, not indulgence.

Buchanan and Wagner analyzed the political incentive to grant benefits now and defer their costs. The officeholder takes the applause; a later budget gets the bill. The left that proclaims itself the defender of the welfare state must explain how it will preserve it when its promises grow faster than the ability to finance them and the difference is added to the debt.

Defending pensions and essential services requires priorities and effectiveness. Shielding every budget item as a 'social achievement' can endanger the achievements that truly matter. The welfare state loses its footing when its obligations rest on an economy that finds it increasingly difficult to renew itself.

Demography also presents its bill

The European Union's fertility rate fell to 1.34 children per woman in 2024; Spain recorded 1.10. At the beginning of 2025, 22% of the EU's population was aged 65 or older. Pension spending amounted to 12.3% of the Union's GDP in 2023. Living longer is an achievement; financing longer retirements requires productivity, employment, and foresight.