The refinery war and the vulnerability of modern society

The war in Ukraine is revealing something that is easy to overlook in peacetime: modern military power, like modern civilization itself, depends on continuous supplies of usable transportation fuels and other products made from crude oil.

Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russian oil refineries with long-range drones. In recent weeks, several major Russian refineries have been forced to suspend or reduce operations following drone attacks. On September 20, a Ukrainian drone attack damaged the Moscow oil refinery, causing fires at its two main crude distillation units. According to industry sources cited by Reuters, the refinery subsequently halted crude processing, and repairs could take several weeks. The facility processed approximately 230,000 barrels of crude oil per day in 2024 and produced gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products.

Why would a refinery be such an important target? The answer lies in the difference between crude oil and refined products.

• Crude oil is a valuable natural resource, but it is not directly used as gasoline for a car, diesel fuel for a truck, or jet fuel for an aircraft.
• Crude oil must first pass through a complex series of refining processes that separate, convert, and treat its various components.

The result is a range of transportation fuels and products that can be used by transportation, industry, agriculture, and the military.

In this sense, the refinery is a critical conversion point between a natural resource and the usable forms of energy required by our modern industrial society.

The distinction between raw crude oil and the transportation fuels and products made from that oil becomes particularly important during war.

In the Western world, the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia is sometimes described as a modern-day "David and Goliath" struggle. In the biblical story, David defeated Goliath with a simple sling and a stone, turning a seemingly insignificant weapon into a powerful means of attack. In today's conflict, drones have taken the place of David's sling: relatively small and inexpensive weapons can be used to strike large and strategically important infrastructure targets. But there is an important difference. Both sides now use drones against the other side's refineries, energy infrastructure, and other strategically important targets. In that sense, the "David and Goliath" narrative does not fully describe the reality of the conflict. What is more relevant to our discussion is the asymmetric use of technology to target critical energy infrastructure.

A military may possess large quantities of crude oil, but tanks, military trucks, and aircraft do not run on crude oil. They require refined transportation fuels. Military logistics therefore depend not only on access to oil resources, but also on the ability to refine, store, and transport those transportation fuels to where they are needed.

This gives refineries strategic importance.

Ukraine's attacks can therefore be understood as a form of asymmetric warfare. Rather than attempting to match Russia's much larger conventional military capability directly, Ukraine is using relatively inexpensive long-range drones to attack complex and expensive industrial infrastructure. The objective is not necessarily to destroy military equipment itself, but to interfere with one of the systems that enables that equipment to operate.

The economic logic is straightforward. If a refinery is damaged, the consequences may extend far beyond the immediate physical damage. A damaged crude distillation unit can reduce the refinery's ability to process crude oil and produce transportation fuels. If several refineries are affected simultaneously, the resulting reduction in refining capacity can place additional pressure on domestic fuel supplies.

Recent events suggest that this is no longer a purely theoretical concern. Russia has experienced fuel shortages and has restricted exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel while several refineries have faced disruptions. Reuters reported that the Syzran and Saratov refineries suspended processing following drone attacks in September, adding pressure to the domestic Russian transportation fuel market.

But the story does not end at Russia's borders.

Oil is traded internationally, and refined petroleum products are part of a highly interconnected global market. A disruption in one major producing country can affect supplies and prices elsewhere, particularly when spare refining capacity is limited.

That is precisely what is happening now. Diesel fuel markets have become especially tight as the war in Ukraine coincides with disruptions in the Middle East. Reuters reported in September that global diesel prices had reached record levels, with European diesel futures more than doubling from their levels at the beginning of 2026. Refineries in several regions are operating at high utilization rates, leaving relatively little spare capacity to compensate for additional disruptions.

This highlights an important distinction between crude oil and refined products.

People often talk about "oil supply" as though crude oil and transportation fuels were interchangeable, but they are not.

A country may have access to crude oil while still experiencing a shortage of diesel or gasoline if its refining capacity, transportation infrastructure, or distribution system is disrupted.

This is one reason why the refinery has become such an important strategic asset.

There is also an interesting symmetry in the current conflict. Ukraine has attacked Russian energy infrastructure, while Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian energy and transportation infrastructure. Both sides understand that energy infrastructure is not merely part of the civilian economy. It is part of the physical system that allows modern society to function.

The asymmetric nature of the conflict also has another side. It would be misleading to describe the strategy simply as "cheap drones versus expensive targets." Russia has increasingly used drones against Ukrainian infrastructure, forcing Ukraine to devote substantial resources to air defense and interception. Reuters recently reported that Russia's deployment of faster, jet-powered Shahed-type drones is putting additional pressure on Ukraine's air-defense system.

The broader lesson, therefore, is not simply about who has the cheaper weapon; it is about vulnerability.

Modern societies have become extraordinarily productive because they have built highly interconnected systems for converting natural resources, like raw crude oil, into usable transportation fuels and materials. But that same interconnectedness can create points of vulnerability.

The refinery is one such point. It takes crude oil-a complex mixture of hydrocarbons-and transforms it into products with specific properties and uses. Gasoline provides mobility for automobiles. Diesel moves trucks, agricultural machinery, and much of the heavy transportation system. Jet fuel enables aviation. Other refinery products become feedstocks for petrochemicals and countless materials used throughout modern life.

The lesson is remarkably simple: natural resources have latent value, and refining makes that value active by converting them into usable forms and delivering them where they are needed.

In other words, refining does not simply "consume" crude oil. It converts it into forms that society can use.

The current conflict is making this otherwise invisible process visible.

A damaged refinery is not merely a damaged industrial facility. It can mean fewer trucks moving, fewer aircraft flying, higher transportation costs, and tighter supplies far beyond the immediate location of the attack.

This is why the current attacks on Russian refineries deserve to be viewed not only through the lens of military strategy, but also through the lens of energy systems.

Modern warfare demonstrates this principle in an especially dramatic way, and it raises a broader question for peacetime societies as well:

How much resilience does a modern society really have if the infrastructure that converts its natural resources into usable forms is disrupted?