The demographics of war

Without any doubt war is one of the greatest man-made disasters in human experience.

The relationship that exists between war and population remains far from clear. Few aspects of life have proved as elusive as the explanation and study of the causative factors of war.

It remains difficult to establish a direct link or causal relationship between population and war, the linkages, if any, being inevitably complex, intricate and often difficult to untangle.

It is more than possible that it is only from the mid/late 19th century that wars became lethal in the sense that they destroyed more people than chattels such as homes, crops and goods. Prior to the 20th century and quite possibly in the 20th century the destruction caused by an army on the march and the epidemics and famines that followed closely in its wake destroyed the population much more than the actual fighting did.

The number of deaths associated with wars in the 20th century were in the region of 115 million and between 1740 and the 1970s when more than 360 armed conflicts occurred.

The demographer is interested in war from a number of perspectives. These include, firstly population dynamics and distribution and the role they play in causing collective violence and aggression.

War is also often seen as a demographic crisis, a crisis of mortality and morbidity and one that encourages mass migration and extreme reactions.

Perhaps as some have argued war may be a Malthusian method of population dynamics with widespread implications for demographic loss and significant changes in age and sex distributions. As Malthus argued perhaps war is one of nature's positive checks on population.

Is it possible that war has a demographic function and might be seen as a "normal" state of socio-demographic affairs or even is one of nature's ways of trimming populations to restore resource levels.

The demographic consequences of war involve a wide range of issues such as the preparation for hostility, the results of active participation and post-war adjustments required to edge back to something resembling normality. These include, manpower losses of combatants and civilians, marriage and birth losses, age and sex implications with an excess of females, especially widowed females, changes in a wide range of population variables such as divorce rates, marriage and family postponements, increases in morbidity particularly diseases such as venereal infections and typhoid as well as a range of population movements related to forced migration, flight and relocation and boundary changes.

The medical demographer and population geographer are interested in war from a number of points of view. Firstly, population variables are influential in producing collective violence and aggressiveness. Secondly, war is undoubtedly a demographic crisis, a crisis of mortality and morbidity in the way that Malthus viewed how war is a positive check on the population. Thirdly, the demographic consequences of war range from the preparation of involvement, through the results of active participation to the post-war adjustments required for a return to normal life. Fourthly, war played an important part in the spatial diffusion of death and disease.

As well as looking at the demographic, social and economic impacts of war this study examines the impact of war on a number of the world's countries. This study looks at a number of case studies where war played a devastating role. In Paraguay, for example, the war between 1864 and 1870 creating a society lacking men. The Nama war in German Southwest Africa which resulted in genocide for the Herero and Nama people, the invasion of China which included bio-warfare.

The relationship between population and war remains far from clear. Few aspects of life have proved as elusive as the explanation and study of the causative factors of war.

There is little doubt that we really need to understand the important role the population plays, before, during and after conflict. The demographer is interested in war from a number of perspectives.

Firstly, population dynamics and distribution are influential in causing collective violence and aggression. Secondly, War is often seen as a demographic crisis, a crisis of morbidity and mortality, and a crisis which encourages mass migration.

Perhaps as some have argued war may be seen as a Malthusian method of population dynamics with widespread implications leading to demographic loss and age and sex distributions.

Thirdly, the demographic consequences of wars are overwhelming whether it be in the preparations for conflict, the results of active involvement or the aftermath of struggling to return to pre-war conditions.