Thirty years on, the Coalition has no idea what to do about One Nation

For the 28 years since the 1998 Queensland election, when One Nation won almost 23 per cent of the vote and 11 seats, Labor has prospered by exploiting precisely these dynamics. It needn’t be so.

The Liberal Party created the problem in the first place by turning the allocation of preferences into a matter of principle rather than mere mathematical advantage.

In 1998, One Nation was much more toxic than today to middle and multicultural Australia. That toxicity complicated the election campaign, drowned out the Coalition’s key messages, and helped bring down a good government.

John Howard learned from that and realised One Nation’s second preferences were not going to secure government, so he wooed its first-preference voters. This consolidated the Howard battlers and was buttressed by his strong stance on borders. One Nation withered.

The One Nation of 1998 was perhaps 40 per cent working class and 60 per cent conservative. The One Nation of today may be 90 per cent former Coalition voters, so Howard’s tactics won’t necessarily work either.

So what should the Coalition line on One Nation be?

First, it should be a united one. No more freelancing by Tony Abbott, Tony Pasin, Andrew Bragg, James Paterson or anyone else. Develop an arsenal of standard one-line responses and leave it at that.

Second, don’t criticise One Nation. Distinguish Coalition policies from theirs where necessary, but don’t be drawn into attacking them as a party.

From the point of view of self-interest, criticism only builds One Nation’s base. It increases its relevance.

One Nation voters were your voters until six months ago, so you are also attacking your own former base.

Perhaps some misguidedly think this is how you get those voters back. It isn’t. It confirms their decision to defect.

Looking beyond the next election, when One Nation may hold a swag of seats, it will also damage the Coalition’s ability to work with it against Labor and the Greens.