Securing the South Pacific's uncertain future

Long regarded as a marginal theatre of operation for strategists from around the world, the South Pacific has increasingly become a critical focus of security concerns. Rather than a series of relatively isolated island states subject to conventional threat, today Pacific governments and their respective communities are struggling to come to terms with a host of environmental, developmental, health and security challenges, the vast majority of which extend far beyond any easily defined and contested military security domain. As external powers continue to pursue increased influence in the region through economic, strategic, and military means, the choices Pacific Island states, and a growing number of relevant external regional states (including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan) will make about a whole array of respective challenges will significantly affect the region's overall stability in the years to come. In addition to such newly emergent, diverse security challenges that individually and collectively pose such serious threats to their unique cultures, existence, sovereignty and developmental aspirations, there will be a host of well-established issues that long characterise the history of relations in the South Pacific between and amongst respective governments and their respective communities.

The biggest single security challenge to the South Pacific region today is climate change, with the issue of rising sea levels and the associated coastal erosion, increased frequency and severity of tropical storms, as well as saltwater 'intrusion' into underground fresh water aquifers amongst others. Climate change poses an existential threat to low-lying Pacific Island countries and their peoples in terms of the security of their countries, their territorial seas and the environment which supports their culture and livelihoods. For archipelagic states such as Indonesia and the Philippines, which are comprised of many islands spread over large areas of the oceans, climate change-related natural disasters are today considered a major national security challenge impacting on the safety and security of the country and its people. Consequently, building climate change resilience is today a major strategic priority in the wider Indo-Pacific region that cannot be treated as an afterthought to more pressing strategic priorities.

Security challenges related to maritime sovereignty of Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are increasingly apparent. Although many PICs have the potential to tap into resources in their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), due to the lack of resources to protect and patrol the zones, illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing continues to thrive. If not addressed, this situation can have serious consequences for the fish stocks, food security and the income that could have been gained from selling fish. It is also having a serious impact on the sovereignty of PICs over their waters. The challenges to the sovereignty of the waters of PICs are also felt by other countries in similar regions, such as Indonesia and the Philippines. Several initiatives are underway to improve the coastguard capabilities of countries in the region and to enhance cooperation in matters of maritime surveillance and the sharing of intelligence to combat IUU fishing.

Additional issues affecting the South Pacific are the increasing presence and influence of a number of extra-regional countries. This is particularly the case of China, which has been investing heavily in the region, building infrastructure, and offering aid to Pacific Island countries. The impact of China on the South Pacific is a complex one, with some of the positive benefits of increased development, trade, and access to new markets potentially being outweighed by the negative impacts of increased debt, reduced transparency and the potential for increased strategic influence. In seeking to balance development with the need to maintain national autonomy, Pacific governments are drawing lessons from their Southeast Asian counterparts who are dealing with similar issues in the South China Sea.

However, there is a more positive force at work in the region in the form of Japan's Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy that emphasises connectivity, maritime security, human security and sustainable development. Importantly, much of the assistance Japan has provided in the form of infrastructure, disaster response, governance and capacity building is exactly what many Pacific Island countries have been seeking in terms of support to achieve their own development goals and to secure their interests in the face of great-power competition. Therefore, while China's growing influence is a growing concern in the region, Japan's stance is viewed in positive terms.

As useful as military security arrangements are for keeping other powers at bay, there is a greater risk of the militarisation of the South Pacific, and this would be contrary to the region's long-standing identity as a Zone of Peace. Indeed, the real risks to the region are those of fragmentation among Pacific Island countries which would facilitate differing degrees of influence being exercised by external powers. In the end, however, regional stability is at risk because of weaknesses in the governance of a number of Pacific Island countries. And these in turn create special problems in implementing programs of development and security.

In conclusion, securing the South Pacific will depend on several factors; first, climate change has to be recognised for what it is – a security issue of a very particular kind. Then there are the very real and numerous challenges that are involved in protecting the sovereignty of a large number of Pacific Island Countries over their Territories, their resources and their Pacific Ocean. That in turn will depend on the up-scaling of both regional and National Institutions as well as a large number of important Partners that are very willing to support all Pacific Island Countries in a way that respects the absolute agency of each Pacific Country to make decisions that any one of us would wish for ourselves or for our children and for future generations. Importantly as well, Indigenous rights have to be recognised fully – that would mean giving full recognition to both self-determination as well as to stewardship of all of the Territories and the resources that are common to all Pacific peoples. So, security in the South Pacific is security that is transparent and which is accountable at all times. And which involves us all working cooperatively, as would be true of all of the citizens and residents of each of the many countries of the South Pacific, as well as the many members from around the world of this forum. And in that way, our combined policies would have the most strategic impact possible for securing the South Pacific for all Pacific peoples.