Selling renewables – a marketer's dream

In the early days of the renewables boom, growth began quite slowly, then accelerated to reach a fairly steady range (31.2 to 41.9 PJ, average 34.9 PJ per annum) over five years. Now we can see that in 2024 (the latest year available) growth suddenly fell to just 21.6 PJ.

The data do not merit calculating a statistical trend but seem sound enough for comparing growth numbers with expected clean energy needs of a future Australian economy. For that comparison we need to estimate a longer term national clean energy generation target.

A proper clean energy target is not simply a derivative of the "% renewables" targets in vogue in today's energy politics. A true target must be set in energy terms, like petajoules or terawatt-hours, because energy, not power, is the fundamental quantity relating to the economics of a nation's production.

There is no agreed Australian clean energy target or method for estimating it. The subject receives little attention. We do know that any clean energy economy will be heavily electrified. It will rely on electricity in quantities much higher than now prevail. There are some "educated guesses" for those quantities, based on first principles. The lead to a rough estimate of 2.5 to 3 times present electricity consumption. That is, a fully electrified clean energy economy, if ever feasible, will need at least 2.5 to 3 times more electricity than today.

Quite apart from its clean electricity requirements, "full electrification" is a serious technology challenge. There is much naïve speculation regarding the hurdles faced, especially for heavy industries like fertilisers and explosives that rely on fossil fuels for their chemical content rather than their energy. Without a suite of new electrified technologies, tested and proved at scale, the energy guesswork will be wild. Don't believe anyone who tells you otherwise.

Despite the uncertainties it's worth taking a look at how much clean electricity might be needed. Assume a conservative 2.5 multiplier and a base figure of 1,000 PJ for Australia's present total annual electricity consumption. The rough annual target becomes 2,500 PJ clean electricity generation, from solar and wind sources. Today those sources generate 300 PJ per annum. So there's a gap of 2,200 PJ per annum. That gap has been closing in recent years at rates between 21.6 PJ to 41.9 PJ per annum.

Simple arithmetic says that at the highest rate the target will be reached in 52 years and at the lowest rate in 102 years. 52 years? 102 years? That doesn't line up with the hype of modern clean energy marketing. Looks like solar/wind growth rates are being seriously exaggerated.

Also the extremes of the above time estimates reveal the volatility of Australia's solar/wind growth rates. This behaviour is rarely discussed. It seems to be related to the basic structure of Australia's clean energy market and the drivers for its growth. Growth strategy is based entirely on market signals and incentives; the growth rates as documented here did not result from planning. Indeed they seem to be uncontrolled and apparently fickle consequences of governments avoiding direct planning and involvement. The only firm finding here is that the outcome of such a strategy is unpredictable. This should hardly surprise.

Uncontrollable and unpredictable clean energy growth rates are just one part of the sad tale. The other is that the growth rates themselves are far too low to meet any sensible emissions reduction strategy. The present solar/wind growth strategy cannot succeed.

It looks like Governments have been trying to avoid "picking winners" in their clean energy policymaking. Instead, they are picking losers. Another surprise? Not really.

A further obvious conclusion is that nuclear energy must become part of any successful clean electricity growth strategy. In contrast to the feeble capacities of solar and wind farms, a typical thermal power station rated at say two gigawatts (2 GW) and running 85% of the time has an annual output around 55 PJ electricity. That's how Australia used to run its electricity grids. Clearly a handful of such power stations running on nuclear energy would make a big contribution to the kind of clean energy targets discussed here.

Australia should drop its renewables dreams and immediately adopt a plan to legitimise nuclear energy. It will take years to undo the damage done to date. Further delays won't help.