Bringing down the Putin regime to end war in Ukraine peacefully

Putin has been able to maintain his domestic tyranny and war against Ukraine because popular opposition in Russia has not yet reached the size of a critical mass to topple his regime.

This critical mass could soon be reached as a result of Putin's order for partial military mobilisation in the Russian Federation.

ProfessorChenoweth found that between 1900-2006, campaigns of nonviolent civil resistance were twice as successful as violent campaigns. If as little as 3.5% of a country's population stood up against their tyrant, that toppled the dictatorship.

Hence, if 3.5% of the Russian population rose up against Putin non-violently it may bring down his dictatorship and could put an end to the Ukrainian war.

Putin's order for the forced conscription of 300,000 Russians to fight in Ukraine may be the catalyst that will bring him down.

None of these people wish to fight in Ukraine, otherwise by now they would have heeded the six-month old campaign to recruit more people to the Russian army for the war.

On one hand there is the conscription opponents' fear of retribution if they defy Putin's order, on the other hand there is their lack of desire to kill Ukrainians and ultimately be killed by them.

Going to jail for defiance may be viewed by them as lesser harm than killing and dying for Putin in a war of ongoing attrition.

But they know that Putin cannot imprison 300,000 conscription "refuseniks" and millions of protestors if they join in mass demonstrations and civil disobedience.

Therefore, they have less to lose in a non-violent uprising than in going to war in Ukraine.

Russia's adult population is about 115 million. If of those, 3-4 million were to rise up against Putin, that could ensure his regime's downfall.

But even if, for example, just one hundred thousand people peacefully stormed the Kremlin, and another one hundred thousand stormed the Winter Palace in St Petersburg and another one hundred thousand engaged in mass protests all over Russia, the security forces would be overwhelmed, and the regime could fall.