Is Donald Trump on the way back?

Love him or loathe him, Donald Trump remains the most commanding presence in US politics. His 2016 election success was the biggest election upset since Harry Truman's re-election in 1948.

November 8 2022 will see the US Congressional "mid-term" election. This will be the next big electoral test for Trump's attempted return to power in November 2024. (The election will see all of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate up for election).

Donald Trump is, for good or ill, the superstar of American politics. People under-estimate him at their peril.

Traditionally in US politics a losing candidate bows out of politics. For example, Al Gore never ran again after losing in 2000 and Mrs Clinton won't try to run again.

But Trump has not bowed out of politics. He is determined to do better next time (2024).

In the meantime, he is remaking the Republican Party in his own image. The Republican Party is being purged of Trump critics. Of the 293 Republicans serving in the House or Senate in January 2017 (when Trump was inaugurated), 132 (about 45 per cent) are no longer in Congress or have announced they won't run again. It is virtually inevitable that Trump (or his nominee) will be the Republican presidential candidate in November 2024.

Trump has sensed that there is a new mood in US politics. Party activists (in both parties) are less worried about a candidate's policies and focussed more on whether they can win.

Culture – rather than detailed policies – now determines election outcomes.

In management terms there is the warning that "culture eats strategy for breakfast" (attributed to the legendary management writer Peter Drucker). In other words, you can develop a great strategy but if the company lacks the appropriate supportive culture, you are wasting your time.

I think that "culture also eats politics".

Trump's rise has forced commentators to pay a greater attention to culture (and less to the details of policies). Politics is now not so much about assessing policies. Politics is now based on "Where do people like me fit in?" "Which party is for people like us?"

Identity politics is now used across the political spectrum. Trump (and most other politicians) have now weaponized fear. There is a "fear-industrial complex" composed of political parties, lobby groups, and the mass media.

The right whips up fears about Islamic terrorism, people of colour, crime, the moral values of elite media and Hollywood, and illegal immigration.

The left whips up fears about police violence, poverty, the gap between the rich and poor, easy access to guns, and climate change.

In short: angry minorities now rule political parties and set the agenda. Each plays to its own narrow constituency.

Political commitment is based on group ties and social identities, such as "poor white males" (Trump) or "deprived people of colour" (Biden).

Ironically the Democratic Party has lost much of its white working-class labour vote. It now relies on urban educated wealthy elites (especially on the east and west coasts) with funds donated from the finance sector. This is very different from Franklin Roosevelt's grand coalition of the 1930s/ 1940s which meant the Democratic Party shaped US politics from 1932 to 1968 and invented "big government" aimed at improving the lives of working-class Americans.

Trump has ramped up – but did not initiate – Republican paranoia based on "the left wants to destroy mainstream America", not least through political correctness and the culture wars. The Republican Party has lost control of its traditional power bases in the big institutions, such as the mass media, finance, technology corporations, and universities.

Ironically Trump and his supporters want to take control of government at national and state levels. This is very different from the post-Roosevelt era of Republican Ronald Reagan's "small government", which has set the tone of US politics since 1980. As Reagan said: "The most terrifying words in the English language are: `I'm from the government and I'm here to help'".

Now the Republicans see government as the way of saving the US. US electoral systems vary state to state. Republican-dominated state legislatures are trying to replace non-partisan election officials with Republican ones, and electoral boundaries are being redrawn to safeguard Republican majorities. Republicans continue to claim that the 2020 election was fraudulent and so they want to avoid a recurrence.

Finally, another Trump surprise: the newly-created Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG). Trump has been banned from social media (such as Twitter) – further evidence of the left's control of the technology industry. Trump intends to retaliate by creating his own media empire, including his millions of loyal Twitter followers. This project has already raised about US$1billion in only a few months.

Given the nature of the company, we do not know who are the mystery backers (Russians? Saudi princes?) This suggests that some people have decided that Trump is still major political force and so they want to show their loyalty by making funds available – in the expectation he will remember them in 2024.

In short: Trump continues to dominate US politics. Do not under-estimate him.