The Kamala Harris’ hollow visit to South-East Asia

Vice President Harris while in Vietnam launched the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention, South-East Asia Regional Office in Hanoi while the rest was rhetoric and symbolism.

On her final day in Singapore, Harris visited US troops at Changi Naval base and went aboard the USS Tulsa. In Hanoi, Harris visited a war memorial, and laid flowers, where the late U.S. senator John McCain's plane was shot down during the Vietnam War.

It was rumoured that a General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) would be signed when Vice President Harris was in Hanoi. This did not happen. This could be seen as a subtle sign that Vietnam is not ready to carry the designation of a strategic relationship with Washington, which is what the U.S. really wanted.

Just before Harris arrived in Hanoi, the Vietnamese Prime Minister Phan Minh Chinh met with the Chinese Ambassador to Vietnam Xiong Bo to reinforce the message that Vietnam doesn't align itself with any one country against any other.

Part of the Harris narrative was deeply flawed. Her emphasis on the role of ASEAN doesn't take the realties of the organization into account. ASEAN is really a very loose organization, neglected by now-reluctant members who compromise so much that any communique has no tangible actionable meaning. Talks about ASEAN complementing the Quad is no more than a diplomatic illusion, with no actionable reality behind it. The Vice President was so vague when giving examples of possible areas of cooperation, that making any ASEAN-Quad relationship a cornerstone in the region looks almost impossible as a strategic realty.

The Kamala Harris visit to Singapore came off without any hitches, reinforcing the close relationship between the two countries. However, what was important during this visit is what was not said by Singapore. Singapore has no intention of going into "Cold War" narratives of China, a neighbour in the hemisphere they must co-exist with.

Kamala Harris didn't make any major breakthroughs in Vietnam either. However, it must be said, none were really expected.

What is probably notable are the countries not on the Harris itinerary, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. The Biden value-based approach espoused within the South-East Asian doctrine, could, in the current political situation, paint the U.S. into a corner with Thailand if the US also wants to be consistent with its stand on Myanmar.

For the Biden doctrine generally, it's difficult to see where the U.S. can win any breakthroughs to prove efficacy. The recent diplomatic flurry has brought some transactional successes, but hasn't really pushed U.S. interests any further forward than the Obama era.

For Harris herself, she came through unscathed. However, there is a lot more work for Kurt Campbell and his think tank to do to enable the Biden South-East Asia doctrine to achieve positive outcomes.