Biden’s South-East Asia doctrine: repairing damage and neglect from the Obama and Trump years

The Biden administration is taking a team approach. Vice president Kamala Harris is set to play a major symbolic role with her forthcoming visit to long-time ally Singapore and to further serenade Vietnam. This is following on the footsteps of secretary Austin's visit to Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines, and deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman's visit to China, Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, and Indonesia.

A brief situational audit

Singapore is the strongest ally of the US in the region today. Singapore supports a strong US presence within the region, and thus is providing logistical support for US military aircraft and navel vessels, as well as rotational deployments. The US supports Singapore armed forces training overseas, where Singapore has a number of squadrons of aircraft in the US.

Austin's latest visit saw both parties strengthen cooperation in AI, cyber defence, and strategic communications, and the establishment of a multilateral terrorism information facility, which the US is a partner. The Biden administration just announced the nomination of philanthropist Jonathan Kaplan as US ambassador to Singapore, a post left vacant under the Trump administration, since 2017.

US relations with Indonesia are strong, where the US has substantial commercial investment in the country. Indonesia is strategically important due to the Malacca Straits, which is the busiest shipping lane in the world. The US and Indonesia share a new joint coast guard facility in Batam, focusing on marine security and anti-piracy operations. The two countries also carry out regular joint naval exercises, and an annual joint military exercise designated Garuda Shield. Indonesia also carries out joint exercises with China, conducting good relationships with both China and the US.

The US has a good relationship with Malaysia, with strong commercial, and military links. Malaysia has become weary of China of late due to PLA air force incursions into Malaysian territorial waters, in the South China Sea. The US has also had a long relationship with Thailand. Although the US was critical of the 2014 coup by the military, which ousted an elected government, both countries are still participating in good military cooperation, with many joint military exercises. The US is using U-Tapao Naval Airfield as a key refuelling stop between the US, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Like Indonesia, Thailand also has good relations with China.

Vietnamis a priority for the US. Bogged down with legacy issues involving the remains of MIAs from the Vietnam war, and suspicion of US intentions by Vietnam, the relationship has been slow to develop. Chinese aggression in the South China Sea maybe influencing better relations between the US and Vietnam. To date there has been bilateral cooperation with maritime law enforcement and capacity building. There are rumours that Harris will sign a General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), which would set the stage for the exchange of classified military information between the parties.

Philippine relations with the US have been a little erratic during the Duterte presidency. There may still be some disappointment at the US handling of the Scarborough Shoal issue back in 2012, where China broke an agreement brokered by the US. However, Austin went away from his recent visit to the Philippines with the US-Philippine Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) renewed, after the Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte threatened to terminate it.

The increase of tensions with China in the South China Sea, with PLA soldiers disguised as fishermen within the Philippines EEZ, has possibility assisted in the softening of president Duterte's attitude towards the US. There will be a new president in the Philippines next year, which the US is waiting for.

The US relationship with Cambodia remains poor. Former president Obama's meeting with the Cambodian leader Hun Sen back in 2012, was reported to be very tense over human rights issues. US naval ship visits, joint military exercises, counter terrorism training, and joint human trafficking work has done little to improve relations. The US relationship with Laos is transactional, but cordial.

After the February 2021 military coup in Myanmar, Biden imposed sanctions on Myanmar military leaders and their business associates. Like Cambodia, Myanmar will be a low priority for the US, as it is difficult to see how the Biden strategy can bring these countries closer to the US.

The Biden strategy places an importance on the role of ASEAN within the region. However, since the passing of the former secretary-general Dr Surin Pitsuwan, and Covid-19 travel restrictions across the region over the last 18 months, ASEAN appears to be irrelevant. The AEC exists in name only, and important partnership mechanisms like the EU-ASEAN Strategic Partnership have not been activated.