Current political crisis preventing any solutions

Two payments of RM500 (US$120) in September and November for sole proprietorships are too little, too late. Only RM500 will be paid per eligible person under the People’s Care Assistance program with RM100-1400 paid in September amid complaints that this is just too long for people to wait. Many of Malaysia’s thousands of micro-enterprises have been unable to borrow, so the loan moratorium will do nothing.

The assistance package is not without some long-term consequences. The possible effect of the loan moratorium could be a bank-induced credit squeeze just when the economy needs funds pumped in to prime a recovery. People dipping into their EPF now may lead to potential financial problems in retirement.  

Desperation Showing

One local MP was reported to have told a household not to raise a white flag, but to raise their hands in prayer. In Nibong Tebal, Perak, several impoverished families who put up white flags were scolded by representatives of the local state representative. The Kedah chief minister Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor called the white-flag campaign “anti-government propaganda.”Authorities have generally scorned those who have raised white flags, angering the community even more, leading many to social media to plead to both the government and royals for help.

Separate from the white flag phenomenon, a black flag movement has started to express anger and dissatisfaction toward the Muhyiddin government. A group called the Sekretariat Solidariti Rakyat (SSR) demands that Muhyiddin quit, that parliament reconvene, and the state of emergency end. Police are reported to be investigating the movement for sedition.

Asia Sentinel was told the feeling on the streets is akin to the anger felt after the sudden 1998 dismissal of Anwar Ibrahim as deputy prime minister by then prime minister Mahathir. The Reformasi protests in support of Anwar at that time led to incidents of violence and arson, by small groups. The heavy-handedness of authorities is stoking anger, rather than calming things down. 

Towards a Parliamentary Sitting

Muhyiddin in an attempt to shore up his support made a surprise appointment of UMNO vice president Ismail Sabri Yaakob to the position of deputy prime minister, and elevated Hishammuddin Hussein as a senior minister, taking over the defense ministry from Sabri. This immediately led to UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamid withdrawing UMNO support for Muhyiddin as prime minister, with immediate effect. This has put political fighting into a spiral dive.

The parliament is now scheduled to sit in the first week of August, a special sitting with special rules with some members physically absent but connected online. Whether Muhyiddin faces a vote of no confidence remains to be seen, as the Dewan Rakyat speaker Azhar Azizan Harun, a Muhyiddin ally, will no doubt employ all the rules and standing orders to delay or prevent any vote, if possible.

Last year as the crisis wore on, Muhyiddin appeared to have the support of just 111 MPs in the 222-member house of parliament, scraping by with the slimmest majority of one with three absent. Since then, the United Malays National Organization at its national congress voted formally to withdraw support, leaving the timing to the party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to decide.

Yet Zahid himself doesn’t have the loyalty of all 38 UMNO MPs.  Thus, for UMNO, this current crisis is not just about support for Muhyiddin as prime minister but Zahid, who faces multiple corruption charges, as party leader. UMNO is deeply split, with one faction supporting Hishammuddin Hussein, currently minister of foreign affairs in the Muhyiddin cabinet. There are in fact 18 UMNO members in the Perikatan Nasional cabinet. How many UMNO members will support Muhyiddin’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu, which has 31 MPs, 15 of them formerly UMNO members, remains to be seen.

This split weakens UMNO as a solid bloc. As Zahid has officially withdrawn UMNO support, Muhyiddin would certainly lose confidence of the house. However, this doesn’t mean that Pakatan Harapan’s leader Anwar Ibrahim will be able to muster a majority. Thus it is possible that no MP would be able to command a majority. UMNO MPs who withdrew their support for Muhyiddin might decide to remain non-aligned and independent.

Normally, this would lead to an election, with Muhyiddin recommending to the Yang Di-Petuan Agong, or king to dissolve the house and call for polls. However, this would be undesirable with the current state of the pandemic, and not a popular option for any stakeholder.

There is another option, to form a minority government under a selected prime minister, not too much different from what has occurred over the last 18 months, with the PN government. Muhyiddin could continue with an independent UMNO bloc if they pledged to pass financial bills the government introduces to the parliament, like the budget.