Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

We are killing more people because of lockdown than we are saving

By Graham Young - posted Monday, 13 July 2020


Second we ignored new data as it came in.

Third we didn't encourage healthy debate, or debate of any sort. This isn't just YouTube purging "misinformation", but most of the measures put in place by government were never properly debated in parliament and were implemented by regulation, and then interpreted and extended by "oracles" called public health officers.

Fourth, there was no attempt to do the simple public health sums that I have run through above, nor the courage to put the arguments to the public, so that now we live in a surreal bubble world where state governments act as though the virus can be eliminated, and the news media feed us COVID porn every day based on often meaningless statistics and the hope of a happy, COVID-free ending.

Advertisement

There are governance measures that can be put into effect to address these issues and make these miscalculations less likely (although they can't guarantee absolutely against harm).

No forecasting model should be used where the program code is not publicly available for analysis and download. Public health cannot hang on opaque black-boxes owned by organisations like Imperial College, which, when they are eventually analysed turn out to be hopelessly constructed.

 

The models need to be available for critiquing, as do the inputs. Even climate change models pass this test.

 

Then we need to do proper cost-benefit analysis, and make this public and explicit. The false media narrative valorising a decline in COVID deaths without highlighting the rise in other deaths is partly driven by a lack of understanding and education, which is driven by a lack of explanation from the top. People can get their heads around the idea of opportunity cost, even when it is applied to life and death, but they need to understand that it can be a matter of life and death.

Advertisement

 

The cost benefit analysis also needs to be ongoing, and change as facts change – you might call this a Bayesian approach.

We also need meaningful statistics. At the very least the government should publish weekly statistics showing total deaths as well as epidemic deaths and media should be encouraged to do the same. Most of us are unfamiliar with the amount of death around us, and generally feel we are immortal, apart from when we get sick ourselves. This leads us to overweight the deaths caused by COVID (in this case), just as we tend to overweight deaths caused on purpose compared to those that happen routinely.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. Page 3
  5. 4
  6. All

An edited version of this article was first published on The Spectator.



Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

46 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Graham Young is chief editor and the publisher of On Line Opinion. He is executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, an Australian think tank based in Brisbane, and the publisher of On Line Opinion.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Graham Young

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of Graham Young
Article Tools
Comment 46 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy