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So everybody should just stay poor, George?

By Eric Claus - posted Friday, 29 May 2020


It then follows: Does George want the lower middle Income countries (top 12 by population India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Philippines, Egypt, Vietnam, Republic of Congo, Kenya, Myanmar, Ukraine) to get richer. The average GDP/capita in these countries is one twentieth of the high income countries, so I am damn sure they want to get richer.

Assuming that George doesn't want these upper and lower middle income countries to stay poor and he doesn't think they should consider "dealing with the issue of population," we can then estimate the amount of greenhouse gases likely to be generated into the future.

Table 1 shows the population, greenhouse gas generation per capita, total greenhouse gases generated and the associated growth rates for 1980 and 2014. Table 1 also includes estimated values for population (from the United Nations Population Division Median Variant), the estimated greenhouse gas generation per capita based on per capita growth rates estimated from recent history (tinged with optimism) and the calculated total greenhouse gas generation for 2050.

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A year by year graph based on the data from 1980 to 2014 and the assumptions leading to 2050 in Table 1, would look as follows.

These estimates show:

  • It is not only the High Income countries that are generating GHG, as George implies.
  • High income countries are reducing GHG. Others not so much.Under this scenario the total worldwide GHG generated will increase by 40% by 2050
  • Under this scenario by 2050 high income countries will produce about 23% of the world's total GHG while upper and lower middle income countries produce three times as much

These are only estimates based on the previous 35 years, but what is clear is: it ain't just about rich countries.

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4) When wealthy people, such as Moore and Gibbs, point to this issue without the necessary caveats, they are saying, in effect, "it's not Us consuming, it's Them breeding." It's not hard to see why the far right loves this film.

First, nobody in the film said that or anything close to that. Second, we have just seen that unless you want people to be poor, consuming is going to happen when people get richer. When consuming happens there will be environmental impacts, regardless of the race, creed or colour of the consumer.

Population groups around the world generally focus on their own countries. Maybe George knows of the other kind that says: "it's Them breeding." If so, he didn't leave a reference.

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About the Author

Eric Claus has worked in civil and environmental engineering for over 20 years.

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