Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Dealing with climate change: three scenarios

By Peter McMahon - posted Thursday, 23 May 2019


If climate change is actually happening, and at the rate the science suggests, then we must do something about it. This is the message being put forward by a growing number of people around the world as expressed at the ballot box, in social media and in protest actions.

Perhaps most telling, the young are increasingly vociferous on the subject, putting their elders on notice to act. They will inherit the future, and they don't like what they see.

In this piece we'll consider how things might pan out by utilising the scenario technique used in many futures studies. Basically, the technique identifies key drivers of change, then suggests an array of scenarios depending on which drivers are dominant. The scenarios are not predictions as such, but suggestions intended to aid critical thinking.

Advertisement

Such a technique cannot factor in inherently unpredictable developments, such as the rise of charismatic leaders, surprising scientific evidence, pandemic disease, or radical technological breakthroughs. Instead, we'll assume that the current scientific understanding of climate change is about right, that technology continues to advance steadily, but that public sentiment can shift dramatically and that government action can as well.

We'll assume the main drivers of change to be climate change itself, government actions, and popular concern. The scenarios go from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic.

Scenario One: Solving the problem

In this scenario, climate change is no worse than the IPCC says it is, and is amenable to prompt action. Governments manage to cooperate and agree to a new treaty to end fossil fuel usage by 2030, and a global structure is set up to ensure compliance. There is a massive investment in renewable energy, both government supported and also from private sources. This accelerates the technical efficacy of renewables like solar, wind, wave, and hot-rock energy. Energy conservation increases as digital systems enable better control over energy use. In addition, vast areas are planted with trees, bushes and grasses to soak up atmospheric carbon. Market changes discourage air travel and much transport shifts to trains and electric cars. Local production of goods and food increases and the average person recycles more and travels less. People take more and more responsibility for their own carbon footprints (keeping 'down' with the Jones's).

The younger generations are focused on sustainable living as a fundamental belief, and increasingly shape events as they move into positions of power and influence. The world's population manages to maintain a cooperative attitude and to encourage their leaders to do the same.

The growth in greenhouse gas emissions is halted and a decline begins. There is still work to do, but the population of Earth breathes a huge sigh of relief. Furthermore, all the hard work sets us up for a bright future, even a new golden age.

Advertisement

Scenario Two: Bumbling along

In this scenario, governments undertake some new policies to counter climate change, mostly to avoid criticism, while talking a lot about adaptation. Renewable energy is promoted, but the main energy reliance is still on fossil fuels, especially gas, and some nuclear. Some people are satisfied with this largely token effort, but increasing numbers protest about the pace of change. Hard core protesters emerge to cause real disruption, which governments soon describe as terrorism. Increasingly harsh sentences are handed down to such protesters, further alienating moderates.

The pace of warming eases somewhat, but long term trends remain a problem. People have not really changed their attitudes to reflect the new times and so leaders can avoid genuine remedial action. There is an ongoing unease in people's minds which begins to have widespread psychological and health effects.

There is still much disinformation, too much ignorant ranting, too much avoidance of responsibility and too little material change to the causes of the problem.

Scenario Three: Climate disaster and social catastrophe

In this scenario, as the effects of climate change worsen and its ramifications become evident, governments adopt an explicit two-tier policy of effecting some remediation, focusing on adaptation, but mostly avoiding real change.

Popular dissent rises, especially among the young, which only hardens the generational divide and makes politics increasingly toxic. Governments harden their position on climate 'terrorists' who are taking direct action, attacking the remaining fossil fuel operations - such as mining, factories and other high energy use activities – that are seen as carbon intensive. Massive anti-terrorist forces previously put in place to counter fundamentalist terrorism entirely shift their attention to climate terrorism.

In this hothouse context, civil discourse breaks down completely and democracy crumbles. Our main institutions – governments, corporations and militaries - are discredited and increasingly violent emotions flow through the populace, evidenced in vicious social media exchanges, street riots and terrorist acts.

Increasingly desperate geo-engineering projects are attempted in order to lesson atmospheric carbon. These projects have little positive impact (because we still know too little) and some even make the problem worse.

Increasingly desperate governments find it increasingly difficult to cooperate with each other, and open conflict breaks out. Eventually, nuclear weapons are used, armed conflict ensues and democracy collapses. Authoritarian leaders emerge to promote narrow nationalistic responses, making cooperation to deal with the basic threat impossible.

More and more people are afraid of the grim future and increasingly weird beliefs and movements emerge in response. Rationality itself is under siege.

With runaway warming and no meaningful response, the world spirals into chaos.

Of course none of these scenarios will occur - the world is more complicated than that - but we can only hope that what does happen is closer to the first scenario than the second two. That is, that our basic social and political values survive even as the threat is materially addressed. We still have time to go down this road, but we must act immediately to do so.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. All

Article edited by Margaret-Ann Williams.
If you'd like to be a volunteer editor too, click here.



Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

15 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Dr Peter McMahon has worked in a number of jobs including in politics at local, state and federal level. He has also taught Australian studies, politics and political economy at university level, and until recently he taught sustainable development at Murdoch University. He has been published in various newspapers, journals and magazines in Australia and has written a short history of economic development and sustainability in Western Australia. His book Global Control: Information Technology and Globalisation was published in the UK in 2002. He is now an independent researcher and writer on issues related to global change.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Peter McMahon

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of Peter McMahon
Article Tools
Comment 15 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy