Australia’s Population in the 21^st Century: Being Realistic

One of the more important will be our integration if not eventual assimilation into the Asia Pacific economy and society. The world is aggregating into bigger communities and bigger economies, and has been doing so for many millennia. We have moved households into tribes, tribes into territories, territories into states, states into nations, now nations into regions (eg. EU, NAFTA, CIS, Mercatur) and – in the second half of the next century – regions into the global village and economy.

Facilitators are the Internet, global finance, tourism without visas, the UN, the WTO and more. The logic is based on ending wars, increasing scales of economy (and standards of living) and a growing appreciation of our only known liveable planet, Spaceship Earth. Many issues reinforce this, including global warming and the need for sustainable environments.

The emergence of an Asia Pacific Region – with "sovereignty" al la the EU – will devolve many (but not all) issues to a higher government. Population policy is likely to be on such an agenda. Just as immigration policy was ceded by State Governments in Australia to the National (Federal) government in 1901, some partial devolution to our Asia Pacific Regional body could be anticipated in the next century. So today’s exogenous factors could become internal factors (to the Region) in the 21st Century.

Scary? Yes but hasn’t just about every other dramatic change been scary before the reality throughout history?

As we enter the 21st Century, estimates of desirable population levels for Australia range from 6-12 million (Tim Flannery) to 100-150 million by the Year 2100 (Phil Ruthven).

The low level proponents cite ecological constraints and cultural harmony. Some are hiding closet xenophobia if not racism. The sole high proponent or rather forecaster, and the author of this article, cites realism (the emerging borderless world), international morality and defence (by co-operation) as the reasons for the likely higher figure. Others would add economic advancement as a reason for higher immigration and population levels, but it is well to remember that 12 of the Top 20 Standard of Living nations (of around 240 nations) in the world today have population levels lower than Australia.

The low level proponents suggest our environment is fragile and we do not have enough water or useable land for many more inhabitants. Yes, our environment is fragile which suggests we should be careful; but we should always remember it is not so much the number of people that upsets the fragility so much as their activity.

The "useable land" claim will carry nothing but disbelief and derision from the rest of the world and especially our neighbours in the Asia Pacific, because:

1. Australia has 34% of the land mass of the Asia Pacific and 1% of its population.
2. If just 20% of Australia’s land mass is "useable" then our density rises from 2 people/sq km to 12 people/sq km (equal lowest in region).
3. Japan’s "useable" land mass is 15% (of its 370,000 sq km) or around the size of Tasmania. Its effective density is therefore 1650 persons/sq km.
4. The same calculation for other neighbours in the Asia Pacific yields similar sobering facts.

We live in a denser world than many care to acknowledge. The world’s density of population is currently 45 per sq. km (on inhabited land masses); and the Asia Pacific’s density is 90 per sq km. The table below is food for thought.

The emerging borderless world is adopting global morality via the UN and other organisations – the Iraq War, the Kosovo War and East Timor - and as demonstrated by the actions of Amnesty International etc.