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The battle over Syria's future

By Alon Ben-Meir - posted Tuesday, 4 April 2017


Second, the US must accept the inevitable: Russia, having invested so extensively in the past six years, will maintain a stronger and more visible military presence in Syria that it had before the civil war, for decades to come.

Third, Iran will insist on maintaining a permanent presence, but it must be warned by the US publicly and directly that creating a third front from which to threaten Israel will not be tolerated. Any such provocation will be seen and dealt with as if it were a threat against the US. Iran will also have to restrain Hezbollah to prevent any future conflagration with Israel.

Fourth, whereas Turkey claims to have national security concerns, it must not be allowed to dictate the fate of the Kurdish community in Syria. The US must make it abundantly clear to Erdogan that meddling in Syrian Kurdish affairs is not acceptable. The solution to the Turkish Kurdish problem lies with reaching an agreement with its own Kurdish nationals.

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Fifth, a process of peace and reconciliation must be undertaken and supervised by representatives of the Syrian population with the UN that will include the other involved countries to prevent revenge and retribution. This will be necessary to smooth the way toward restoring normal life, albeit it will take many years to heal emotional scars and the agony of dislocation that has affected just about every Syrian.

Sixth, a massive international aid effort will have to be undertaken. Tens of billions of dollars will be necessary to facilitate the return of the refugees, the rehabilitation of the internally displaced, and the rebuilding of the country's infrastructure and other social services.

I feel safe to speculate that the situation in Syria would not have become so calamitous had former President Obama interfered early on in the conflict. He might have been able to help not only bring an end to Syria's civil war which has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands under his watch, but also prevent Russia from filling the vacuum that he created, making Moscow the most powerful player in Syria.

President Trump must remember that although ISIS' defeat is critical, he has to develop a comprehensive strategy that will not only shape the final framework of an agreement in cooperation with Russia, but also facilitate a solution to other regional conflicts. Time is running out and the body count must stop.

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About the Author

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

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