Textor thesis fails empirical test

Superannuation was an own-goal, with a relative 9.43% swing against the Liberals in this group but the percentage of respondents who were interested in super was very small.

The economy was a surprise with a relative swing to the Coalition of 0.35% from last time Labor voters, but a migration away from the Liberals of 3.29% over and above the general swing away. However virtually all Greens voters who came across to the Coalition mentioned the economy.

These figures demonstrate how small the movements in voter preference are that determine governments. They also show that none of the issues run this election grabbed the public.

In the end it is little wonder that Malcolm Turnbull just fell over the line. Neither major party gave voters much to vote for, and in so far as the Textor thesis has any validity, it is that the “centrist” Turnbull was just a fraction more personally acceptable than Bill Shorten.

But this is not a strong basis for winning an election. The next election will be won by the party that manages to reap more than its fair share of the non-Greens minor party voters. They are up for grabs for Liberal or Labor.