All is not lost, Europe

Begret: to pull or not to pull (the trigger)

What next for Britain? The situation in the main political parties and, indeed in the UKIP is uncertain. Between now and October new leaders of those parties will emerge. Yet the formal procedure to exit the EU doesn’t really start until the UK notifies the EU of its intention to leave. After that, a negotiation starts for a new agreement, which must be reached within two years. Needless to say, the leaving country doesn’t participate (on the EU side) in the setting of terms. That notification is the equivalent of “pulling the trigger” for the country to legally start moving away.

Once the trigger has been pulled, the UK will not have the obligations, nor will it receive the benefits of membership to this club.  Will this be the end of the UK? Perhaps not. It will certainly have to evolve, perhaps to become a federation. But the situation will be difficult, and arguably worse than it would have been inside the EU.

There are reasons to believe that the trigger might never be pulled if certain circumstances come together, for instance a blockage of the procedure by the Scottish Parliament, or a successful candidate seeking a mandate to reverse the decision (a sort of second referendum in disguise). But that is unlikely. 

Ode to Europe?

According to some who prefer to disregard the negative impact of Brexit for the UK, the British referendum should be rather considered as the beginning of the end for the EU. And, indeed, the EU might be about to crumble. Yet, whether the honour of being the main cause for that would belong to Brexit is debatable. As mentioned above, the EU faces huge challenges, or downright crises on immigration, the banking system, economic stagnation, future enlargement, or foreign policy, just to mention a few. Brexit joins a long list of Europe’s misfortunes.

However there is still hope for Europe. As acute as its difficulties are, Europe’s situation when its project of integration started in the forties was much worse. Today it is an altogether different place. It has enjoyed one of its longest periods of peace and prosperity, something other regions of the world can only dream of. And its achievements have spread benefits well beyond its borders.

The European project, which started without Britain, can survive without it. The departure of the UK from the EU is a great loss, a drama in which everybody loses. The UK has represented for Europe a fresh source of ideas; a pragmatic approach to complex problems; an ordinarily measured and reasoning voice in the discussions between East and West, North and South in Europe; an experienced player in foreign affairs; the source of a lingua franca the EU uses on its daily dealings; and a peculiar sense of humour. Furthermore, a significant number of Britons voted for Remain, or regret having voted for Leave. They believe in the European Dream that has materialised for millions across the region.

Yet the origins of the EU can be traced back to the modest initiative of six countries: France, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Italy. The UK received an invitation to the club but it declined it. It wasn’t until the sixties when Britain tried to join, and the seventies when it finally was accepted. An EU without Britain would be a club with a member down, but still a 27-strong club. The qualities and ideas of Britons would not be there, but the polity would continue to inspire other nations to meet the criteria and join (think of the Western Balkan countries on course to join). The EU would still have considerable economic and political clout in the region and the world.

The problems the EU faces today, if complex and challenging, are not unsurmountable. There is a history of over 60 years of the European project forging ahead, overcoming crisis after crisis, evolving, growing to the occasion with each problem, and expanding to transform the whole region completely. To remain relevant in the XXI century Europe must pool forces and present a unified front. Isolation is the past. Cooperation is the future. This doesn’t mean necessarily the creation of a “European country”--a super state--where the richness of Europe’s diversity is drowned. A European polity formed by states but not a state itself is not only thinkable, but a current--if very perfectible--reality.   

Brexit, therefore, is indeed a historic moment. But for Europe, it means a call to consider what is not working, a revisiting of processes and policies, a re-imagining of a vision for the future of the European project. The European polity must evolve to become more democratic politically, more inclusive socially, more productive economically, more effective internationally.

An agreement will have to be reached when the UK activates Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Like Iceland, Switzerland, Norway (or for that matter Belarus or Ukraine), Britain will remain a part of the European region whether it belongs to the EU or not. Brexit should by no means be a cause for dismay, but an impulse to grow. All is not lost, Europe!