Turnbull held aloft by projection and likeability

Labor’s attack is targeting this reality. Current polling by Newspoll suggests that it is actually on the cusp of succeeding, but will it?

It all depends on what grounds the next election are held.

While the economy is generally a central concern for coalition voters more than Labor and Greens voters, this election it seems to be shared across the board. However, looking more closely at the responses, the economic concerns on the left are with “fairness”. While the concerns on the right are with keeping costs within our budget.

It seems to be common ground that the government can’t just keep spending money it doesn’t have. The solution from the left is to tax someone who is said to be unfairly not paying their fair share. The solution from the right is to pull spending back in line with taxation income.

Turnbull doesn’t appear to have developed a counter to this fairness argument. And if he doesn’t, then an election fought on the economy could tip him out.

He appears to be aware of this and if the expected double dissolution election is called the trigger will most likely be to do with trade union misbehaviour.

That would be all well and good, and the Trade Union Royal Commission appears to give lots of ammunition, except that it is not an issue that motivates any of the people that have swung to the Liberals, and in fact it is only an issue with the rusted-on Coalition supporter.

Which brings us to Labor’s weakness – Bill Shorten. After Tony Abbott it would appear that Bill Shorten is the most disliked politician in Australia today, and his trajectory from the Beaconsfield mine disaster onwards has been down.

As a Greens voter says “He comes across as not having any strong convictions or wishes a ’wishy-washy’ type of person - does not believe in or want to ’fight’ for anything... He came across better at the mine disaster when he came across as a ’real’ person”.

Shorten appears to have a trust deficit, and if you had to choose between him and Malcolm Turnbull for the last seat at your dinner party, Malcolm would be the easy choice.

So, while Newspoll puts them neck and neck, I think Turnbull is still the favourite to win. He brings a centrist feel to the government, making it hard for Labor to paint him as “extreme”.

And a lack of activity was actually a hallmark of post-war, pre 1975 Liberal governments. Menzies was accused of doing nothing, but always had a foreign affairs, or communist scare campaign, to pull out of his drawer when an election was looming. And middle Australia was always more socially comfortable with him than his opponents.