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A grim future for the ALP

By Syd Hickman - posted Tuesday, 29 September 2015


There are at least ten reasons the ALP will be crushed at the next election, to be held when it suits the government. Many overlap but here they are in simple terms.

Money

The ALP will struggle to get funds. The usual union donors will be trying to cope with legal bills and, in some cases, fines for appalling behaviour. And there are problems of declining membership. The fact that electoral defeat is almost certain will deter some business donors. The ALP membership will not be a strong source of funds due to declines in numbers, vitality and enthusiasm.

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Some state ALP organisations are in very bad shape. In WA The Greens are raising roughly as much money as the ALP. Crisis is not far off.

Meanwhile, money will not be a problem for the Liberal Party. Business and many rich individuals will provide all that is required and more.

Leadership

PM Turnbull has taken charge of the nation without apparent effort and appears to have some sort of plan for creating a better future despite the many problems facing us all. Bill Shorten looks lost now that his only asset, Tony Abbott, has been removed.

Not that it's all Bill Shortterm's fault. There are no leaders-in-waiting, just alternative faces.

Turnbull has adopted a nice, rich uncle persona and is developing it with great skill. Shorten is more like a rather irritating brother-in-law. You can put up with him but find yourself wondering why your sister ever married him. You certainly don't want him around every day.

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Unions

The unions will continue to be a drag on the ALP as the Royal Commission produces more evidence of criminality and, more importantly, disrespect for workers.

Beyond the specific stories will be the ongoing proof of the close relationship between the ALP and the union movement. For many young, and youngish, voters this is mystery as they have never had any real contact with unions and regard them as part of the pre-smartphone era, which to them is a dark incomprehensible void.

Talent

The Turnbull revolution has brought out a surprising number of intelligent and apparently sane people from Liberal obscurity. Suddenly most of the front bench looks capable and not nasty. And there are more smart people in waiting on the backbench.

The ALP has some capable people and could form a serviceable government if events were drifting easily along. But it does not have the people to inspire confidence that if things go badly wrong the Government will be able to respond with speed and determination.

Media

Most of the media buys into the Turnbull story. They have seen the Abbott fiasco up close and they were horrified. They also understand the talent and leadership relativities. They can be expected to give the new government a good run simply because they believe it is the best hope for national progress.

The extreme right 'personalities' who are still angry at losing their pet PM are also helping the new regime. Having them as enemies will help swing many votes. The conservative politicians still making threats and demanding they be appeased are in the same boat. Their noisy fall from grace makes the new government more attractive.

The easiest ALP stories are now the negative ones.

Policy

Policies will grab hold of the community only if they are part of a meaningful narrative. Turnbull has to finesse his story to take his right wing into account but he has already shown he can do that with ease. His task will get easier still as time goes by.

The ALP has a bigger problem. The conservative union leaders Shorten must confront have more real power than the conservatives confronting Turnbull, and they are directly opposed to the other constituency the ALP must embrace, namely potential Green voters. Early differences between Shorten and Tania Plibersek on gay marriage reflect the need to fight off the Greens in the inner cites while appeasing the conservative base in the outer suburbs.

This problem with constructing a narrative results in the steady stream of 'policy announcements' that are just small spending programs aimed at bribing certain elements of the electorate. Without a meaningful narrative they are pointless.

Tactics

Already we have seen the new government succeeding in restoring the Liberals traditional strong support among women. What Abbott wrecked Turnbull is restoring with cabinet appointments, domestic violence policies and confrontations with the conservative right.

The howling at the moon by the defeated mad right has been turned to advantage rather than just leaving it as a problem that will go away.

The tacticians on the government side are much smarter than their ALP counterparts and can be expected to manage problems well while making the most of their opportunities.

Greens and minor parties

The Greens have been encroaching on ALP inner city seats for nearly a decade. With the new leadership of Richard Di Natale this pressure will grow. New tactics of focussing on winnable House of Representative seats, rather than just on boosting the state-wide vote to get senators elected, increases the prospect of ALP losses.

With ALP defeat highly likely it is also probable that more voters will take the option of supporting The Greens as a way of indicating their displeasure with the ALP.

The Palmer United Party will be irrelevant. The people who voted for it last time were protesting the lack of real options. Now they will back on the market. The slick campaigning of the Liberals, backed up with lots of money, will probably get most of them.

Electoral mood

Most people are rightly worried about job security, drugs, the state of the world and the future of the economy. The self-righteousness that seems so nice and sensible in boom times is changing into a serious concern for stability. The Liberals remain strong in the security story. There is a reluctance to change governments when fear and uncertainty prevails, as long as the government can offer hope for better days ahead. Turnbull does. It is not clear what the ALP offers.

Global realities

The media are treating the mass migrations out of Africa and West Asia into Europe as one-off events, unrelated to financial turmoil on global markets, or to growing real concern about climate change and other environmental issues such as water and food availability. But many voters correctly see these concerns as part of a general systemic failure. The only thing that can stand between them and a global crisis washing over Australia is the government. This all plays into the electoral mood but is not susceptible to internal political debate. Its simply there, hanging over everyone's head, and it favours governments, particularly if they look competent.

It took the untiring efforts of Tony Abbott and his mates to obscure the potential of his own side and to make the ALP look electable. Now the ALP leadership must face some very harsh realities. Stooging around trying to look friendly while promising little handouts to everyone will not do the trick.

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About the Author

Syd Hickman has worked as a school teacher, soldier, Commonwealth and State public servant, on the staff of a Premier, as chief of Staff to a Federal Minister and leader of the Opposition, and has survived for more than a decade in the small business world.

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All articles by Syd Hickman

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