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NSW electricity prices: up, up and away

By Jonathan J. Ariel - posted Wednesday, 11 March 2015


Or does it mean the "outright sale of Ausgrid, the most valuable jewel in the network crown?" With the government's share of the balance of the networks in turn exceeding 51%, so as to give the misleading impression of 51% government ownership?

The countless ways available to pull the wool over the public's eyes by dividing ownership between taxpayers (the current owners) and the private sector (the new owners) are mind-boggling. But what is clear is that only when lock, stock and barrel, that is a 100% of any network business is sold (to one party or consortium ideally by trade sale) will the government achieve the highest possible price for that business.

Perhaps the government will merge Ausgrid with another network business and flog 100% of the merged entity to a single buyer? We really don't know. We're just the mugs who own the assets.

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Second, the government claims not only that the proceeds of sale will make available $20 billion in new infrastructure, but that

"a community consultation process … found overwhelming support for its $20 billion infrastructure plan".

Needless to say the community was not asked if instead they prefer future dividends from the network assets to pay for the said infrastructure, with say, the private sector bankrolling any shortfall instead, as opposed to the government's proposed garage sale.

 

Third, Prof Walker over half a year ago asked, "where's the cash?" when he alluded to the calculations of the claimed $20 billion made available by the sale, to invest in new infrastructure, were not adding up.

The government claimed the $20 billion comprised $13 billion in proceeds, plus $2 billion from the federal funding under the asset sales incentive program and $5 billion in interest earned from investing the sale proceeds over 10 years. Walker challenged those numbers.

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He pointed out that the investment of those funds doesn't have a 10-year horizon, as they must be committed to infrastructure by 2019. What do you know? He discovered a $4 billion hole. It's still there. Gaping.

And Walker was generous. He took the government's word for $13 billion. UBS, the investment bank that is advising the government lowered their gaze to $11 billion.

If UBS is correct, then the gaping hole is even wider. Oh, and the $2 billion in promised federal funding is no slam-dunk either. Just ask the folks who believed in the Federal government's promised $5.5 billion paid parental leavescheme that was killed and cremated on 3 February. They too took the Feds at their word.

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About the Author

Jonathan J. Ariel is an economist and financial analyst. He holds a MBA from the Australian Graduate School of Management. He can be contacted at jonathan@chinamail.com.

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