Teachers galore? A brief analysis of the 'Oversupply of Teachers' in NSW

Recent media reports would have us believe that Australia is experiencing an "oversupply of teachers". At first glance, the statistics support this assumption. Figure 1 illustrates the dramatic rise of teacher graduates over the past decade.

Figure 1: NSW University Teaching Graduates (2002-2013)

The case becomes even more compelling when emotive arguments are wrought from the professional struggles of those qualified to teach. It is firsthand, personal stories such as these that compel us to consider broader education issues so deeply. Teachers at all levels want to see their students succeed. Much of my professional motivation stems from a desire to see the talented pre-service teachers whom I work with be afforded the opportunity to channel their passion in classrooms.

The purpose of this article is not to provide answers. Nor will it attempt to disprove the viewpoints of other analysts. Instead, it will highlight the complexity of the issues with the NSW teaching workforce. We cannot be caught up in the dichotomies of 'good and bad' or 'oversupplied and undersupplied'. This article will explore the composition of the NSW teaching workforce from different perspectives. There are two primary areas of analysis: the age demographics of the NSW workforce and the geographical distribution of the NSW DEC Employment List.

The Age Demographics of the NSW Workforce

For several years, the NSW workforce has been on the cusp of a 'changing of the guard'. The 'baby boomers', who have served as the foundation of the NSW teaching workforce for decades, are progressing toward retirement age. As of 2012, there were approximately 49,000 teachers employed permanently in DET schools across NSW. Nearly half of these teachers (47.8% or 23,422) were aged 50 years or older (NSW DEC, 2012). From 2007 to 2017, there will be a significant decrease in the proportion of teachers over 50. Unpredicted early retirements and a continued drop beyond 2017 into 2018 could lead to a sharper decline in the 'baby boomer' generation. Younger teachers will be called upon to fill this void. Departmental projections indicate that the number of permanent jobs in NSW DEC schools held by people over 50 could drop by 6019 in 2017 .Should such predictions hold true, our surplus teachers may be called upon to fill a void.

Population growth is another factor that needs to be considered when examining our teaching workforce. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) NSW had a population of approximately 7.25 million in 2012. Table 1 provides a conservative estimate of teaching numbers in relation to projected population growth in NSW. General population growth alone could create 1 666 new permanent DEC teaching jobs by 2017.

Table 1: Growth Projections in NSW

*Projection from the Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources (2004)

** Projection based on the trends outlined by the Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources

Retirements and population growth could account for 7865 available permanent teaching positions in NSW by 2017/2018.

This information represents a relatively narrow sample size of the total teaching population of NSW. The private school system provides permanent jobs to roughly 29% (20 000 approx) of all qualified teachers in NSW. If their teacher age demographic is similar to that of the NSW public school system, this could mean that an additional 2000 – 3000 jobs could also be available to teachers under 45 by 2017.

The Geographical Distribution of the NSW DEC Employment List

The casual and temporary teaching workforce is under represented in discussions about teaching in NSW. These teachers are required to deliver long-term and short-term education in often challenging circumstances where a permanent teacher is unavailable (illness, maternity, transfer, etc.). Without high quality teachers on the state employment list the quality of state education would be compromised. The Teacher Employment list does not provide an exhaustive summary of those qualified to teach in NSW.

Since 2011, the NSW DEC employment list has grown by 10 748. Certainly, a 32% increase in teachers unable to find permanency could suggest a 'glut'. Figure 2 shows this growth has been comparable in both the primary and secondary fields. This is quite rapid growth in NSW and appears to support the claim that there is a backlog of primary teachers. This problem appears to be exacerbated by the number of primary graduate teachers exceeding the need of NSW DEC schools.

Figure 2: DEC Employment List change by year

Inland NSW is not experiencing the same 'oversupply' of casual and temporary teachers as the rest of NSW. Figure 3 shows the Employment list numbers by year in the different areas of NSW. The imbalance of supply teachers between Inland NSW and Isolated NSW is perplexing. Inland NSW has a student population and permanent teaching workforce that is nearly double the size of Isolated NSW. Yet, Isolated NSW now has access to an additional 4095 temporary and casual teachers across both primary and secondary fields. Even more concerning then the gap itself is the disparity in growth. Over the last two years, the DEC employment list for isolated NSW more than doubled (53.2%) as an additional 3000 teachers are seeking employment in this region of NSW. Conversely, during the same period, Inland NSW's DEC Employment list has grown by a comparatively paltry 5%, a total of merely 217 teachers.

Figure 3: NSW DEC Employment list trends by location

This information may suggest a 'bush' or 'beach' mentality from teachers which leaves Inland NSW a forgotten and potentially disadvantaged entity. The NSW DEC relies primarily on teachers younger than 30 to fulfil these valuable roles. Australian universities are producing higher numbers of teaching graduates, with a noteworthy spike since 2009. Unfortunately, Inland NSW has clearly not reaped the same benefits of the increasing graduate numbers in recent years. Clearly, these findings show that the widely reported 'oversupply of teachers' may be a fallacy of division. The details and unique circumstances of the different areas of the state needed to be considered fully before blanket statements are made.

The role that universities are playing in the composition of the NSW teaching workforce should be analysed fully before we dismiss our teaching institutions as "cash cows". On October 20^th, Professor Stephen Dinham was quoted as saying:

"It is quite unethical to let people train in an occupation they are not going to be employed in".

As educators, we are ingrained with the belief that we must account for the individual needs of our students. Should not the unique contexts of our tertiary institutions also be considered prior to such condemnation?

The NSW DEC has deemed the number of graduates over the past decade to be acceptable to meet the needs of its schools, aside from the concerning lack of mathematics teachers (NSW DEC, 2012). In particular, within the primary teaching sector there 'appears' to be an excess of new graduates emerging. The majority of new graduates with NSW DEC will work casually and temporarily via the employment list before obtaining a full time position. Inland NSW again appears deprived in relation to other NSW regions.

In 2012 and 2013, there was a spike in teacher graduates that can likely be attributed to the removal of caps for university places. During this timeframe, 13319 teachers graduated from NSW universities. However, by 2014 the DEC employment for Inland NSW had grown by only 217 people. Even in the unlikely event that all of these teachers were new graduates; this would suggest that Inland NSW has received 1.6% of available graduates to service 11% of the teaching workload.

Conclusion

The 'oversupply' of teachers in NSW will not continue to exist in perpetuity, nor is it currently a state wide issue. Even if the baby boomers remain employed as teachers for longer, the retirement of this generation is an unavoidable reality. Thus, retirement and population growth will contribute to an increased availability of permanent teaching jobs. The uneven distribution of the casual teaching workforce means that areas such as Inland NSW continue to have high demand for teachers despite the larger trends to the contrary. For our tertiary institutions, this means that course structure and student intake need to be informed by local contexts.

'Oversupply' is a mantra designed to simplify an incredibly complex issue in NSW education. Perhaps the conversation should shift to the distribution and dispersal of teachers across the state. How can inland NSW universities such as Charles Sturt University be accused of using their teacher education courses as 'cash cows', when they must play a critical role in addressing imbalances to the teaching population? The issues of 'oversupply or undersupply' and 'correct and incorrect' are not important here. We must strive to address the problems with teacher employment through deep consideration and thoughtful adjustments at the tertiary level, rather than risking the unforeseen damage that can result from blanket solutions.