Poland flexes its EU muscles

One intriguing development in the crisis is the underlining of Poland's growing importance inside the EU. Initially dismissed as just one of the poor relations from the former Eastern Bloc joining up after the fall of the Soviet Union, the country is fast being seen as on a par with EU giants Germany, France and the United Kingdom, especially as France is considered to be on the decline and the UK is ambivalent about belonging at all.

Poland has a lot in common with Ukraine. Their languages are similar and parts of western Ukraine were actually Polish territory before World War II – the events of that conflict making Warsaw doubly suspicious of Russia's intentions.

As a result it has taken the lead in promoting western democratic values in the States that belonged to the old Soviet Union – Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and Moldova – including the funding of a television station run by Belarusian exiles, something which has infuriated the autocratic and Moscow-leaning government of Alexander Lukashenko.

There are signs that Poland's example is putting some backbone into its European colleagues. Agence France Press reported energy experts as saying that Germany's dependence on Russia's natural resources was not nearly as great as some were making out.

A Warsaw-based analyst who specialises in Polish-Russian ties, Slawomir Debski, said Germany was less dependent on its imports of Russian gas than Russia was on exporting it.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, visiting the Estonian capital of Tallinn, assured the people of the Baltic States that their membership of the EU and NATO guaranteed security from Russian aggression.

"I am here to say that the Baltic States will not be left alone. This is a joint problem for NATO and the EU," Steinmeier said.

Writing in Forbes Magazine, commentator Alejandro Chafuen said Poland was preparing itself to be again at the forefront of Western civilisation.

"In his book The Next 100 Years, strategist George Friedman predicted that in this decade Russia was going to expand to the West and that this would trigger a new Cold War with the United States. What we see happening in Ukraine fits with his thesis," Chafuen wrote.

"Friedman also predicted that during this century Poland would become the major ally of the United States and would be too costly for Russia to invade."

But perhaps the most telling example of the shifting power base within Europe comes in the comments made by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in a speech two years ago.

Speaking then about the need for Germany to show more leadership in extracting the EU from the aftermath of the global financial crisis, Sikorski said he would probably the first Polish Foreign Minister in history to fear German power less than German inactivity.