Recognising, indeed probably anticipating, that such an outcome was possible, Putin had one great "secret" play left. While the Ukrainian nation might want to head West, the West would be reluctant to accept such a pivot if the country had problems with its neighbours or national minorities. So that very same problem instantly appeared. Crimea was suddenly the poster child for ethnic unrest. And Donetsk, Luhansk, possibly other eastern provinces were right behind.
Wasn't Ukraine looking exactly like "the next Bosnia"?
But if Ukraine were to remain a Bosnia, albeit an artificial one, it would be harder to contain as a crisis point than was the original Bosnia.
Advertisement
If the animosity Putin created with his intrusion into the internal affairs of Ukraine were to turn into a general Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the struggle would be protracted and messy. That in turn, would cause a refugee catastrophe for Europe of unimaginable proportions. Both such results might open out the issue of "Sudeten Russians" in a number of neighbouring countries including those that belong to NATO.
A final postscript: Putin's clever Crimean move has shredded the "territorial integrity" notion on which the UN Charter is based. So, what now?
This is an edited text of a speech Walter Zaryckyj delivered last night at the Sydney Institute. It was first published in The Australian.
Discuss in our Forums
See what other readers are saying about this article!
Click here to read & post comments.
16 posts so far.
reddit this
Del.icio.us
Seed Newsvine
StumbleUpon
