Abbott and Shorten – first poll

A strong factor in Shorten's approvals is that most think it is too early to say whether he is a good leader or not. If there is a negative at this stage it is the question of "trust" (seen down next to the tag "Shorten_strongly_disapprove"), and to a lesser extent, his union connections.

When it comes to who would make the best prime minister, the most connected concept is "Abbott" as this question is seen more as a referendum on him as leader rather than a comparison. However again we can see "Shorten" and "trust" twinned in the centre of the map.

This poll gives us a good first appreciation of where the leaders and the parties stand at the beginning of this term of government. Because the Liberals won, and Labor has only just chosen a leader, more is expected of the Liberals, while Labor is getting a fresh start.

At the moment it looks like a mirror image of attitudes at the beginning of the last parliament. Then Liberal voters didn't want to accept that they had lost, and they vilified the Labor leader; now it is Labor voters, and they are vilifying the Liberal leader.

That strategy worked for Abbott, but I doubt that it will work for Labor. The outcome of the 2010 election was essentially tied, and neither side could claim a large mandate. This meant that continual agitation for a fresh election rested on a strong proposition – that the country needed certainty.

This proposition received further support when Labor broke key promises to keep their alliance partners happy.

Not only does Abbott have a large majority, but he is looking to honour all of his promises. While people may not like him, he has the opportunity to gain their respect, and as Machiavelli noted 500 or so years ago, it is better to be "feared" than "loved". He might also have noted that love can too often morph into hatred – something which explains to some extent the demise of Kevin Rudd.