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Another 'True Believers' election?

By Jo Coghlan - posted Wednesday, 4 September 2013


In 2013, Labor is only in power in South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. This means a lack of infrastructure, finances, and membership that is required to fund and operate a strong election campaign, and particularly to run a strong marginal seat campaign. In 2013 the ALP is lacking states and mates.

Rudd knows he'll lose but does Abbott?

The Abbott-led Liberal Party must be concerned that some political commentators, including senior Liberals, are suggesting that the Liberal Coalition might win the popular vote yet remain in Opposition. Should this happen, Tony Abbott's leadership of the party would surely be untenable. His replacement, likely Joe Hockey, while probably a solid Opposition leader so far does not have the stature of a future Prime Minister. Malcolm Turnbull on the other hand is electorally popular, especially amongst small-l Liberal voters and progressive Labor voters, but is in a party stuck in the mire of social conservatism. The times do not suit Turnbull. However unlikely an Abbott defeat may be, it could lift the shackle of Howard's small target, fear driven, populism and regenerate the Liberal Party to better reflect its liberal traditions.

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Elections, regardless of endless polling, are unpredictable. This election will be no different. Expect some surprises.

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About the Author

Jo Coghlan is a lecturer in the School of Arts and Social Sciences at Southern Cross University.

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