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Who are the 'Deniers' now?

By Anthony Cox - posted Monday, 22 April 2013


It is plain that the warming in the 1990s has not been continued with the trend in the 2000's clearly declining; but that decline is from the high base set by the prior warming so naturally the years in the 2000's are still going to be warmer than the 1990 years even though the trend in the 2000's is the opposite to the 90's.

In any event the temperatures of the modern era are not warmer than past temperatures such as during the Medieval Warming Period as McShane and Wyner found in their seminal statistical analysis of the data relied upon by Michael Mann.

The second reason Pearce uses to dismiss the current hiatus in temperature is by reference to Trenberth's new paper. Trenberth is famous for admitting in the CRU emails that:

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The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't.

The 'missing heat' refers to the fact that the estimates of energy by AGW theory predict more heat in the system than is being reflected in temperature. The most dominant explanation is that this energy/heat is being 'stored' at the bottom of the ocean. Trenberth couldn't find it there before but in his new paper, after reanalysing the same data he can now find it.

For Pearce the pause in temperature increase does not mean AGW has stopped or doesn't exist; it means the heat is still here, at the bottom of the ocean and will appear sometime in the future.

This is problematic. Accurate measurements of the heat in the ocean, OHC, only occurred after 2003. These measurements show that OHC to a depth of 700 meters is not increasing, or at least the unadjusted post 2003 ARGO data is not increasing as Tisdale shows in his comparison of the unadjusted, adjusted and model predictions of OHC post 2003:

The unadjusted ARGO data is in blue, the adjusted in red and the model predictions in green.

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The unadjusted data is supported by the trend in sea surface temperatures which also show cooling:

The issue is, how can heat be accumulating at the bottom of the ocean from atmospheric warming when both the upper part of the ocean and the ocean surface are cooling?

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About the Author

Anthony Cox is a lawyer and secretary of The Climate Sceptics.

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