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Forgive and forget key to Burma’s democracy?

By Graham Cooke - posted Tuesday, 5 March 2013


Sanctions should not be re-imposed on the Burma regime, despite clear evidence of continued Government abuse, a leading Australian expert on the country says.

Morten Pedersen said there was a growing call among human rights organisations for the increasing engagement with Burma to be halted and even reversed. “That reflects a dangerous reading of what is going on,” he said.

Pedersen, a senior lecturer in international and political studies at the University of NSW, who has spent seven of the past 15 years in Burma, said that after 60 years of internal conflict the regime will not change overnight.

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“But [President] Thein Sein has a clear and remarkable commitment to changing the country,” he said.

Pedersen’s comments come in the wake of a number of worrying signs within Burma. Last month the United Nations, while welcoming the discharge of 24 child soldiers from the Tatmadaw (Burmese Army), said there was still much more to be done.

A report from Child Soldiers International said that despite recent progress “recruitment of children by the Tatmadaw is ongoing, albeit on a reduced scale”.

Child soldiers are also employed by various rebel groups, including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which is locked in a fierce conflict with the Tatmadaw in the far north of the country.

Despite recent attempts at finding a settlement the KIA has steadfastly refused to sign up for a ceasefire. The Burmese Government claims it is simply mounting a policing action in the region, but reports on the ground suggest all-out assaults employing air power and heavy artillery.

And in another example of just how fragile the current shift towards democracy and civil control in Burma is, there are suggestions that the Tatmadaw has launched the all-out offensive in defiance of Thein Sein’s orders. As one commentator put it: “the lines of control, command and accountability are exceedingly opaque.”

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The semi-independence of the armed forces has its origins in Burma’s post-colonial history. For most of the past half-century the generals have been the actual and absolute rulers of the country, reaping the rewards that this power brings. Pedersen says the transition to democracy has to take this into account.

“There are too many corrupt ex-generals around and the officers under them are waiting their turn to get at the spoils. If the military decide all of this is suddenly going to be taken away from them a backlash coup is entirely possible,” he said.

Keeping the military happy while delivering on the expectations that come with increased democratic freedoms will be a daunting task for the current Government and the one that follows after the election of 2015.

Perhaps the only thing going for current and future administrations is that after decades of oppression and neglect, these expectations will be coming off a low base. Parts of the major city, Yangon, are in ruins. Government departments are housed in decrepit buildings left over from the colonial era; negotiating the cracked and broken pavements is a continuing health hazard.

And in the countryside, the situation is worse still as roads rapidly decline into muddy cart tracks; electricity a luxury for those who can afford a generator.  

Yet Burma has the potential to be one of the richest countries in South-East Asia. A list of its resources is mind-boggling: petroleum, tin, antimony, zinc, copper, tungsten, lead, coal, precious stones…the list goes on and on. Simply scratching the surface of this bounty made past military leaders, notably the notorious Ne Win, fabulously wealthy. If handled properly it could fund the social reforms that the country so desperately needs. If not, it could easily spark the kind of unrest that would give the military the excuse to seize power again.

In order for a reforming Government is to succeed it needs the support of the international community. China is already operating in the country, principally at a controversial copper mine in the north-west – a massive development which is opposed by local villagers, who say they are being forced off their traditional lands without proper compensation.

Their protests, backed by monks and environmentalists, led to the kind of ugly incidents that are exactly what the country doesn’t want as it opens up to the world.

The landmark visit by United States President Barack Obama in November and a further relaxation of sanctions by Washington has been followed by a delegation of 50 American and international business representatives led by Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs, Jose Fernandez.

Welcoming the delegation, the Chairman of the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Win Aung, said it heralded a new chapter in relations with the US.

“We also hope to welcome business interests from Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore,” Win Aung said afterwards.

Pedersen goes further, saying that the West must begin to embrace Burma’s military despite the well-catalogued list of human rights abuses against its name.

“The Tatmadaw must be given an incentive to back the reforms,” he said

“I believe there should be military-to-military contacts with the West, including Australia, and the Tatmadaw should be gradually integrated into the international peacekeeping progress.

“Obviously this is a very sensitive issue, but I believe it’s the pragmatic thing to do to ensure Burma passes safely into a new democratic era.”

While some of the gloss has been lost from National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi since she entered Parliament in a by-election almost a year ago, her party is still expected to win the 2015 election handily paving the way for her to become president.

Her ability to form a board-based government, encouraging key members of the diaspora to come home and build the nation, utilising the talents of academia, business and even the military, will be the supreme test for the daughter of Aung San, still revered by vast sections of the population as the father of modern Burma.

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About the Author

Graham Cooke has been a journalist for more than four decades, having lived in England, Northern Ireland, New Zealand and Australia, for a lengthy period covering the diplomatic round for The Canberra Times.


He has travelled to and reported on events in more than 20 countries, including an extended stay in the Middle East. Based in Canberra, where he obtains casual employment as a speech writer in the Australian Public Service, he continues to find occasional assignments overseas, supporting the coverage of international news organisations.

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