Racist population fears killed by facts

If you remove the Aussies and Kiwis from the net total of Permanent visa holders, the numbers of foreigners allegedly invading our borders and raiding our fridges, buying our products and creating jobs, sinks to 84,014 souls and then drops further to 77,636 when we deduct those who leave.

Of all the migrants (arrivals minus departures) about 118,000 are Aussies returning home for Mum’s cooking and Kiwis learning to surf at Bondi. Also keep in mind that a further 33,031 are visitors on a working holiday who love our koalas and who want you to take their photograph. Please help them with their backpacks and show them places to spend their money, preferably your shop.

By disaggregating NOM statistics we can see that the notion of a foreign invasion is wrong. Migration is a fairly complex process and can be used by divisive and ideologically driven elements to set Australian against Australian - but not anymore.

The anti-pops demonise temporary, permanent, returning Australians, New Zealand and long term working holiday makers as food eating, water drinking and energy consuming ‘Mongol hoards’. Yet these people bring skills, money and intellectual capital into the country. Why demonise them? Because the anti-pops are innumerate racists.

Housing

About the time of the release of the 2011 Census, there was great lamentation amongst the anti-pops that these ravenous migrants would boost average household sizes faster than we could build houses for them. If that was true, average household sizes should explode.

Yet the 2011 Census found that the average household size remained steady at 2.6 persons per dwelling - the same average as what was back in 2006 and in 2001. ‘Hang on’, I hear you say. ‘If Australia’s population is exploding, shouldn’t the number of persons per dwelling be climbing?’ Absolutely. It is a direct indicator of population. We all need somewhere to live.

Why is it so? One reason is the death rate. Death and serious illness in old age turns over property. Most people these days die of old age 70+ or of illnesses associated with age. The property goes to the children or it is placed on the market. In 2011, 146,932 people died. The great majority of these were elderly. So even though the property market is tight, there are still new properties coming on to the market. Over the next 30 years you can expect much more of that.

There was a rise in couple families without children (+20.3 per cent between 2001 and 2011), one-parent families (+16.8 per cent between 2001 and 2011) and lone person households (+16.9 per cent between 2001 and 2011) grew at a faster pace than a couple with children households (+8.7 per cent between 2001 and 2011). No sign here of a population explosion. The population problem is in Africa, a fact the anti-pops conveniently ignore.

Australia's population hit nearly 22.5 million at the end of last year but the growth rate was significantly lower than originally predicted by the ABS. There were nearly 300,000 fewer people living in Australia at the end of last financial year than preliminary estimates made by the Bureau. The 1.3 per cent anomaly was due to the Bureau predicting that more overseas visitors to Australia were coming here to live rather than to visit.

Predicting population growth is not an exact science because we use estimates and projections. It allows for people with little knowledge of population or Australia’s political or industrial economy, to make mischief in the media and hope that no one will call their bluff. Their bluff has been called now and they have been found wanting.

Conclusion