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Arabian nightmares

By Julie Bishop - posted Thursday, 9 August 2012


As the wave of uprisings swept through North Africa and the Middle East in late 2010 and early 2011, Syrian president al-Assad declared that Syria was “immune” to such events because of the stability of his government.

Within two months of his comments, protestors took to the streets of Syrian cities.

In the months that followed, the nation slid into the morass of a civil war, that is still being waged between the regime and its opponents.

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Like most nations of the Middle East, Syrian society is made up of a number of groups with differing tribal and religious loyalties.

While an estimated 75 per cent of Syrians follow the Sunni Muslim faith, the ranks of the regime are dominated by the 12 per cent who follow the Alawite Muslim faith that is aligned to Shia Islam.

Notwithstanding President Assad's claims of stability, this obvious imbalance has intrinsic potential for unrest.

In contrast, the ruling elite of Saudi Arabia is drawn from the 85-90 per cent of the population that follow the Sunni faith.

The 10-15 per cent of Saudis who follow Shia Islam have long complained of oppression and persecution.

The United States Government's International Religious Freedom Report for 2011 found that in Saudi Arabia “Shia face systematic and pervasive official and legal discrimination, including in education, employment, the military, housing, political representation, the judiciary, religious practice, and media.”

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Despite these long-simmering concerns, there have been doubts about the ability of Shia in restive provinces of Saudi Arabia to turn their grievances into a movement that could challenge the government.

However one indication that the Saudi Government is concerned about developments within the country is the sudden decision to repeal a religious ruling (fatwa) that prevented Shia from buying land near Sunni families or Sunni villages.

This decision came on the back of reports of increasing unrest and protests which appear to have rattled the ruling Royal family.

A complicating factor in Saudi Arabia is that the minority Shia are concentrated in the oil-rich Eastern provinces from which the nation draws the vast bulk of its wealth.

There have been a series of brutal crackdowns in those provinces, including the killing of protesters and the arrest of a prominent Shia cleric.

In more recent days reports from Saudi Arabia indicate that acts of dissent and protests have spread from these regions to Sunni areas of some major cities, including the capital Riyadh.

If accurate, this is a deeply worrying development for Saudi Arabia and the world.

The Saudi Royal family is closely aligned with the Wahhabi Sunni faith, which many regard as radical and hostile to the interests of developed countries including the United States, Europe and Australia.

In the past such religious hostility has been balanced by the role of the Saudi Royal family in helping to stabilise the global economy by increasing crude oil production at critical times, such as during the invasion of Iraq.

Saudi Arabia has increased production in recent months to an estimated 11 million barrels per day to support nations imposing oil import embargoes on Iran over its nuclear program.

Any internal upheaval within Saudi Arabia with the potential to disrupt its crude oil production, even temporarily, would send shock waves through the global economy as prices would inevitably sky rocket.

Instability within Saudi Arabia also has significant regional implications.

Saudi forces were dispatched to Bahrain in March 2011 to prevent the overthrow of the Royal family in that country, which rules a population of majority Shia.

Saudi resources were also used to prevent Yemen descending into chaos when protests and violent attacks led to the overthrow of long-time dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Syria's rebels must also be watching nervously, as Saudi Arabia, along with Qatar, has been a key supporter in terms of military hardware and finances.

The upheaval in Syria has been viewed as a threat to the Iranian sphere of influence, with the Iranians not only supporting the al-Assad regime but sending weapons and supplies via Syria to the extremist group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Some analysts have postulated that Iran could have its interests severely curtailed by the fall of the Syrian regime.

That may be the case but Iran's influence would grow exponentially should an uprising take place in Saudi Arabia.

It is hard to watch events unfold in this region without a growing sense of foreboding.

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About the Author

Julie Bishop is the Federal Member for Curtin, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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