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Why the West does not want to solve the nuclear dilemma with Iran

By Ali Omidi - posted Tuesday, 17 July 2012


Iran's demands in Baghdad seem to have been as follows:

  1. Iran would be able to keep and enrich their sites with 3.5% enrichment activities; IAEA provide the required protection technology in this regard;
  2. Iran would suspend enrichment of 20% as well as allow IAEA inspectors to visit any disputed places, such as Parchin military complex;
  3. the sanction on the Iranian Central Bank and oil transactions would be simultaneously removed;
  4. there would be no further sanctions against Iran by the West;
  5. Iran's presence as an important regional actor would be recognized in issues such as Syria and Bahrain.

While the main demands of 5+1 have been as follows:

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  1. Iran's enrichment process of uranium to 20% to be stopped right away and the existing enriched uranium to be move out;
  2. the site of Fordow would be shut down immediately and access to all nuclear facilities and even the military places like Parchin should be provided right away;
  3. the West would be remain silent on 3.5%, but will debate it in the future (probably after the US presidential elections)so the West does not recognize Iran's right to enrich yet;
  4. the West will not remove or ease the existing sanctions, but it pledges not to impose new sanctions;
  5. 5+1 will provide civil aircraft spare parts to Iran and safeguard technical assistance to the Bushehr plant as incentives;
  6. the West will accept minimum a global role for Iran on issues such as anti-piracy and anti- narcotics campaigns.

The above attitudes could not or will not address Iranian concerns for the following reasons:

  1. Iran's inalienable right to enrichment has not been recognized in a clear-cut way by the West;
  2. the severe ongoing sanctions will continue, just no new sanctions will be exerted - Iran believes that the West has used its utmost capabilities in exerting sanctions and there is no important area for new sanctions;
  3. no significant international role for Iran has been recognized;
  4. the considered incentives were insignificant and trivial, with for example, the swap between swapping the enrichment to 20% for aircraft spare parts seems ridiculous;
  5. loss of stored 20% uranium will deprive Iran of its bargaining chips in the future talks.

All of above arguments and other signs show that the West doesn't have a strong political willingness to resolve its problems with Iran. Why?

The results of talks in Baghdad and Moscow (June 2012) were disappointing and situation has faced deadlock. However, the negotiations in the level of technical and expert meetings have been continuing in Turkey, but it is believed that the West lacks any enthusiasm to solve the problem in a win-win formula. The main reason is that The West deliberately is seeking nuclear negotiations between Iran and the 5 +1 to be prolonged till it sees the effectiveness of latest sanctions against Iran; so to get more concessions from Iran in future's negotiations.

The US and its European allies tend to think that if the circle of sanctions and pressures would be increased on Iran, they may get more points without giving any concessions to Tehran. This is one of main reasons for the delay in attaining a mutually agreed one and comprehensive solution within the win-win formula. Another reason for the prolongation is the United States presidential elections.

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Republicans in America accuse President Obama of being too soft on the Islamic Republic of Iran and so is not a good choice for president of the US for a second round. But Obama's administration, does not want to change its general policy toward Iran which has been based on finding a diplomatic solution.

On the other hand, both the US and the Europe have economic problems that do not allow them to do anything more than impose ongoing sanctions let alone a serious confrontation with Iran. Furthermore, Europe is still grappling with the euro area's economic crisis and economic problems in countries like Italy, Greece and Spain. So, Europe cannot take a more serious confrontation toward the Iranian nuclear issue; so it would welcome just the status quo. Any decision or action that could lead to a crisis in relations with Iran might lead to increased oil prices; an issue which is not desirable to the West anymore. Given the reasons mentioned and in the present circumstances, the West cannot think to harsh policies or military options. Therefore, by imposing oil sanctions and paralysing the Iranian banking system, the West tries to convince its allies and Iran's oil customers to follow their unilateral sanctions and stop or decrease oil imports from Iran.

Negotiations require courage and creativity to give a productive result. The West should accept a nuclear Iran, and in return expect Tehran not to deviate from NPT. Giving up enrichment of uraniums to 20 percent as well as systematic inspections of all Iranian sites will assure the West that Iran is a long way from manufacturing a nuclear bomb.

But, the West should also provide a respectful exit for Iran so Iranian prestige is saved at least for its domestic political audience.

The West doesn't deserve all the blame; Iran also should be blamed for its some lack of transparency and naïve policies.

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About the Author

Dr Ali Omidi is Assistant Professor of International Relationsat the University of Isfahan-Iran.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Ali Omidi

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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