Terror groups and the exploitation of turmoil

The assassination of Osama bin Laden in May last year was seen as a significant blow to al Qaeda, the murderous organisation he founded and funded for many years.

His deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, while sharing the same extreme views, is not regarded as charismatic or as effective as bin Laden at managing the organisation.

This gave hope that al Qaeda would decline as a global threat and perhaps cease to exist.

However, the organisation has proven to be resilient and opportunistic in the extreme.

Offshoots have formed and links have developed with other radical Islamist groups dedicated to advancing their interests through violence.

For example, the areas of relative lawlessness in the vast tribal regions of Yemen were fertile grounds for the establishment of 'al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula' (AQAP).

This group has made several attempts to attack aircraft in recent years and while it has so far failed to detonate a bomb inside a plane it remains a serious threat to airline safety around the world.

AQAP had sought to increase its presence and influence within Yemen in the midst of the upheaval that led to the resignation of long-time dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh.

As the nation has stabilised over recent months, AQAP has come under increasing pressure, from within and beyond Yemen.

Drone attacks by the United States have had a major impact on AQAP leadership while ground assaults by Yemeni military forces have reduced its range of operations within that country.

The al Qaeda linked group 'al Shabaab' which had taken control of large swathes of Somalia has also suffered serious setbacks in recent weeks.

There are reports of United States drones targeting the al Shabaab leadership. Soldiers from several African nations including Kenya are also driving the group out of the capital Mogadishu and cutting off its supply lines.

Plans are underway for an assault on the final strongholds of the group although there is the risk that al Shabaab will simply regroup elsewhere if such an assault proves successful.

While there has been promising progress in the ongoing efforts against extremism, al Qaeda is believed to be making some gains by exploiting instability in other regions.

Another offshoot organisation 'al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb' (AQIM) is apparently supporting the Tuareg rebellion in Mali, where half the country has fallen under its control.

Tuaregs, a Saharan tribal people, have a nomadic range over land that stretches from Libya and Algeria to the north, Mali to the west and Niger to the south.

Muammar Gaddafi reportedly paid Tuareg mercenaries to support his regime, however when his forces lost the battle in Libya, the mercenaries and their weapons returned to northern Mali.

A rebellion began within weeks of their return, seriously challenging the capacity of the Mali government forces to recapture the lost territory.

There are reports of several Islamist groups operating within Mali that are reliant on AQIM for supplies and other forms of support.

Nigeria, which borders Niger, is a significant African nation which is also struggling with a radical Islamist group 'Boko Haram'.

This organisation was known for its attacks on Christians in particular, and for carrying out bank robberies.

However, In recent months Boko Haram has become an al Qaeda copycat, launching dozens of attacks killing hundreds of people.

It is believed that Boko Haram made its transformation under the guidance of AQIM operatives. History shows that this will lead to increasingly brutal acts of terrorism.

What is even more concerning are the reports that al Qaeda is now operating within Syria and attempting to gain access to weapons caches that include chemical and biological weapons.

The Assad regime is reported to have stockpiles of various types of nerve and mustard gases and anthrax.

If such weapons were to fall into the hands of al Qaeda or another terrorist group, the global threat of terrorism would increase exponentially.

While there has been conjecture about the impact of the death of bin Laden on the broader al Qaeda terrorist network and whether a more radical leader would emerge, it now appears the organisation will remain splintered with no single leader taking his place.

The lack of a central point of command makes it more difficult for intelligence agencies to track and detect the plots of the various groups.

However while Osama bin Laden has gone, there are others only too willing to follow in his steps.

The world must remain vigilant to the threats and be prepared to make concerted efforts to disrupt the operations and ultimately dismantle these groups for all time.