The troubled path from dictator to democracy

The international outrage at the atrocities inflicted by the Syrian regime against its own people is utterly justified.

The reports and accompanying images of the mass murder of innocent women and young children evoke powerful emotions and bring calls for some form of protection for those who may be under threat.

People around the world are urging the United Nations to step in and end this slaughter of civilians in Syria.

There is a relatively quick solution to the violence and bloodshed and that is for Syrian President Assad to order his military and security forces to stop firing upon unarmed civilians.

However, President Assad will have been greatly encouraged by the tacit or explicit support his regime has received from Russia, China and Iran.

One of the arguments that Russia in particular has used against any international intervention is that the groups opposing the Assad regime are disorganised and dysfunctional.

Russia is of the view that further chaos would result from an overthrow of the current dictator.

While this undoubtedly true and would appear to be an accurate assessment of the myriad groups operating within Syria, it would hardly be a surprising outcome in a country that has suffered decades of oppression.

Dictators are quick to crush any individuals or organisations with the potential to coalesce into a movement large enough to challenge their power.

With the tools of the State at their fingertips, a dictator can use security apparatus including secret police to ensure the fragmentation of opposition groups.

The fallout from the removal of a dictator inevitably produces uncertain outcomes.

The euphoria in Libya at the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi has faded as tribal and sectarian rivalries have resurfaced in the jostling for power within Libya.

No dominant opposition group that could command the authority and respect of the populace has emerged, because no such group could have existed under Gaddafi's rule.

This leadership vacuum has meant that a central government authority is battling to maintain control, and armed militias have taken hold of parts of the country.

There is no clear pathway to a functioning democracy.

The national elections to be held on 7 July face enormous logistical challenges, which is unsurprising given that the country has not faced an election in 50 years.

There are also ructions in Egypt as it attempts to transition from the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak to civilian democracy.

Unlike Libya, significant elements of the Mubarak/military regime remain intact and are seeking to influence the transition process, raising concerns whether the country can truly be free of the old regime.

There is growing disquiet about the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood as it appears to be the only organisation, not associated with the regime, with the capacity to fill the breach in national leadership.

In some respects, the Brotherhood's resilience is remarkable, but it may be just a reflection of the organisation's inherent fanaticism that has sustained it under the pressure of a dictatorship.

It may transpire that the organisations with the most fanatical foundations will be the best equipped to win elections and take the reins of national leadership.

Therein lies the conundrum for the international community.

If steps are taken to overthrow a dictator, the result may be a transfer of power to more radical and unpredictable elements that may be hostile to the interests of those countries supporting intervention.

This is by no means unusual in the history of world affairs.

At this moment, the dilemma is most acute in relation to Syria.

The challenge for nations that may ultimately support direct intervention in the affairs of another sovereign nation is to demonstrate that the intervention is for the ultimate good.

While it is true that intervention can have uncertain results, and there are instances where it has been to the detriment of those it intended to protect, that does not mean all international intervention has failed.

Russia, China and Iran are rapidly approaching a critical point where they must choose - the side of humanity or the side of the dictator?