No better time to engage North Korea

Possibly, but such a plan carries its own inherent risks. Might the prospect of a Southern military build-up provoke the North into a “first strike” while it still had conventional military capability? Might Pyongyang’s strategists reason that South Korea’s powerful ally, the United States, war weary after Afghanistan and Iraq, would not be prepared to commit the men and materiel to yet another theatre of operations?

Those strategists would almost certainly be wrong. The U.S. is seeing East Asia in a new light following its long-term and largely frustrating involvement on the Western side of that continent. Strategists in Washington are well aware of China’s rise in the region but do not see this as a major threat to national interests as long as the U.S.’s own powerful military and political influence in the region is maintained.

Furthermore, South Korea is no South Vietnam, where a corrupt and incompetent regime had to be almost entire propped up by massive American intervention. The South is the home of a robust democracy supported by the overwhelming majority of its citizens who genuinely believe in their way of life.

And to take the analogy further, North Korea is no North Vietnam whose patriotic fervor and unity eventually triumphed over American might and the hapless South. A nation that keeps much of its population on starvation diet simply does not have the resources to sustain a military campaign even if, through sheer force of numbers, it might have some initial success. 

The fact is that Pyongyang does not need to force a showdown while it can still successfully play games with the other countries in the Six Party Talks (South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the US) aimed at ending its nuclear program. Since the talks began, now almost 10 years ago, North Korea has repeatedly made concessions, then withdrawn them, walked out of negotiations then rejoined, alternated soothing statements with angry rhetoric.

Each time when it looked as if progress was being made, Pyongyang has been rewarded, usually with the easing of sanctions and an increase in food aid. When it backtracked, food shipments were reduced and sanctions re-imposed. In this way North Korea has been able to take advantage of international largess while still claiming it is thumbing its nose at the hated capitalists.

What is needed is an insistence from the negotiating parties that only consistent progress on the part of Pyongyang will be acceptable and the easing of sanctions will not occur simply though it returning to positions it had previously conceded. This will require a united approach from the other five nations, which has been lacking in the past.

There has never been a better time for a robust engagement with the North. Kim Jong-un is reportedly in his late 20s and has probably not yet consolidated his power base. If he does it is likely he will be around for the next 40 years, which may well be an uncomfortable thought for senior members in the North Korean Government and military hoping the country will take different, less confrontational directions during their lifetimes.  

This presents a window of opportunity for the negotiating countries to reach out to any reforming elements that may exist in the Northern hierarchy. If they fail it is hard to see tensions on the Korean peninsula abating anytime soon.