On the road to Indonesia’s 2014 Presidential Election

His aggressive and direct style will appeal well to the younger generation, notably first time voters, many of whom were in diapers when his former father-in-law and Indonesia’s last strongman, President Soeharto, was forced to resign. As with any figure with a long record in public life, he has his baggage. While his old links to the former President are likely to be a fading issue of public interest, his military record will not.

His well-earned reputation as a general’s general will emerge as an issue related to human rights and potential fears of him seeking to become dictatorial in style. On the first issue he can be expected to successfully take advantage of any international whispers of concern by enveloping himself in nationalist rhetoric and with confident statements that no country would take sanction against a democratically elected leader of the world third biggest democracy.

On the second issue, we should expect strong affirmation that Indonesia’s democracy is robust enough to suggest no need to fear the ghosts of military dictatorship.

Ir Bakrie’s rise to political prominence has been much less populist in style. Indeed as Lt Gen (ret) Prabowo promotes in a very presidential manner, Mr Bakrie’s style is much more Prime Ministerial. He presents as a man who can be relied upon to cut the deals needed to get the job done without much fuss. Bakrie has built his networks through the National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Kadin, chairing the organisation from 1994 to 2004. His initial victory, defeating the candidate clearly supported by then President Soeharto, demonstrated commendable political aptitude and fortitude. Few indeed were those who dared to confront and defeat Soeharto’s preferred candidates.

His biggest baggage relates to his own private sector domain. He is clearly credited with leading one of the country’s largest corporate conglomerates. However, Bakrie branded businesses come in too frequently for credit crunches or bruising scandals such as the Lapindo mud mess in East Java. Mr Bakrie will need to deal carefully with these issues lest his campaign become bogged down in its own muddy morass.

More fundamentally he will have to convince skeptical Indonesians he understands that a conflict of interest is not a convergence of interests and thus act accordingly to separate his business from political interests.

He will also need to build a public image that is appealing to regular voters on the campaign hustings, not just to the business barons of the boardrooms.

Here the presidential political system works to Prabowo’s natural political advantage as an energetic public performer. One way for Bakrie to counteract his dull public persona will be through a populist personal approach through networks of charity or support. One development to expect in 2012 is a major Bakrie charm offensive through philanthropy focused, not surprisingly, on rural folk in need of loans, grants or other support.

Overall he would be less well placed at this stage than Lt Gen (ret) Prabowo. To demonstrate that he is candidate with the ability to won 50 per cent of voters support, Mr Bakrie needs to expand his base support vote considerably: 2012 will be his make or break year.

Heading into 2012, many groups and commentators are looking for “something new”. After all both lead candidates have been around since well before the Reformasi era. Both also face significant sources of resistance. Where are the new leaders?

Some are looking for an inspiring candidate among provincial governors. Unfortunately the overcentralised nature of Indonesia’s party system has restricted the rise of non-Jakarta insiders to the top echelons of politics. Another restriction is a difficulty for younger leaders to break into the top levels of major party leadership. In this regard the election of Anas Urbaningrum to the Chairmanship of Demokrat may represent the shape of things to come. However until 2014 the political party glass ceiling for the next generation of leaders will remain in place.

One potential third presidential candidate scenario could be a pairing of an elder statesman willing to serve only one term while allowing his vice-presidential running mate to grow into a leadership position. Intriguing here is a quiet nostalgia for former vice-president Kalla. He is perceived to embody decisiveness, willingness to take tough decisions and speak bluntly. These are the very criteria seen as the incumbent president’s core weaknesses and something the electorate now seeks.