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Live by Big Brother, die by Big Brother

By Graham Young - posted Tuesday, 28 February 2012


Analysis of the verbatim responses says that voters are unenthusiastic about the choice – that is one reason the "neither" category is so high

So to some degree the choice is about style because they don't see any substance in either candidate.

The discussion is also all about Kevin with supporters of Gillard more against Rudd rather than for her. She is seen as a team player, solid and reliable, while Rudd is the celebrity, offering leadership and charisma, but probably not stability.

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When the discussion is not about Kevin it is often about Abbott who Labor supporters see as a bigger risk than either Gillard or Rudd, and one that must be beaten at all costs. At the same time they are often fatalistic that Abbott will prevail.

One shouldn't assume either that support for Rudd means support for his record as prime minister.

Bruce Hawker's claim that the large number of Liberals backing Rudd means that he can convert voters, is misplaced.

Many of these Liberals support Rudd because they dislike Labor and see the way he was removed as being symbolic of Labor party manipulation.

There is a populist version of representative democracy where some respondents believe that voters vote for the Prime Minister through their local representative.

Given the presidential style of modern political campaigns this is an understandable view, even if it's not how the Westminster system works.

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The theory holds that a Prime Minister, having been elected on this transferred authority through the ballot box should not be removed except by a similar exercise of authority by voters at another election.

These voters want Rudd back as PM because they feel Labor broke this implicit compact with the electorate and that Rudd deserves to complete his term so that they, not the Labor party and its factions, can terminate him at the next election.

As one respondent says "We elected Kevin Rudd at the last election. We never got rid of him, only the Labour party did."

This is not a vote of confidence, but a vote for justice, for Rudd and voters, and revenge.

Sometimes in Big Brother it is the contestants who decide who to expel, and sometimes the audience. In this case they both seem to be channelling the same message, despite what the polls say.

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An edited version of this article was published in The Australian on February 27, 2012.



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About the Author

Graham Young is chief editor and the publisher of On Line Opinion. He is executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, an Australian think tank based in Brisbane, and the publisher of On Line Opinion.

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