Out of their own mouths

It is not possible for Iraq to follow such sanctions," [government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh] said. "We are looking for our own interests. In a few days we are going to submit a request to the United States to exempt us.

Japan and South Korea have both made polite noises diplomatically, but have done nothing except say they will cut down imports from Iran, without saying how much or when.

India has been casting around trying to find a way out of the problem. They recently switched oil payments from German-based Europaisch-Iranische Handelsbank to Turkey's Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS. They need Iranian oil badly, and Iran needs grains and other foodstuffs, so a barter agreement has been mooted unofficially, as have payments in cash Rupees, Yen, gold and diamonds. They also have the BrahMos supersonic anti-ship cruise missile to bargain with, although don't expect to see that in any media.

China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil. They snubbed Tim Geitner when he went to Beijing to ask them to join in the sanctions. As he landed, the Government announced that it thought sanctions were the wrong way to go about it, and would not take part in the sanctions. This would put the US in the position of having to apply sanctions against China, who might then withdraw its money from US Treasury Bonds in retaliation. This would crash the US Dollar, so US leverage here is not strong, hence:

China, meanwhile, is expected to circumvent the Iranian sanctions with tacit American approval by settling its oil purchases with Iran through banks that have no dealings in the United States.

Afghanistan and Pakistan are also looking to Iran for oil, gas and electricity. The leaders of the three countries met for a summit in Islamabad 16 February.

... Iran has stepped up its offers to Pakistan to help with its crippling energy shortage and burgeoning oil import bill by offering a regional gas pipeline and deferred payments on purchase of petroleum products.

Multifaceted cooperation among Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran, being close neighbours, was essential to address the challenges and exploit opportunities in the region,” a statement issued after talks quoted Zardari as saying.

Russia does not need Iranian oil, but has steadfastly refused to endorse the sanctions. It remains to be seen if they will arrange to actively help Iran out by, say, taking oil for the very latest supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, or S-300 anti-aircraft systems.

For the record, Australia doesn't buy Iranian oil, but has continued its role as the US's loyal poodle by very publicly joining the oil sanctions. Despite this, it still continues to sell Australian wheat to Iran - shipments due in February-April quarter total 200,000 tonnes.

So it seems that the sanctions will make life difficult for Iran, but not impossible, whereas it will make life very difficult indeed for the Europeans. What's more, the US sanctions are forcing more and more world trade transactions to be completed in non-Dollar currencies, which will undermine the Dollar's position as the world's reserve currency.

Which would you rather have - a barrel of Iranian crude or a hundred US Dollars ?