Australia's future population — facing up to difficult choices

Under a scenario representing the status quo - 70,000 net immigration per year, resulting in 25 million people by 2050 - the population stabilises after 2050. Even so, resource use and pressures on the environment keep growing due to assumptions about growth in personal affluence, growth in exports and inbound tourism and a failure to implement cutting-edge technology across all sectors.

The key challenge of this scenario is to move from relative inactivity into aggressive and positive action on several major fronts. How does the nation enable major investment to proceed while addressing failing marine fisheries, declining biodiversity and land and water degradation? How do capital cities restrict edge growth while re-inventing urban transport and energy systems to provide low-carbon transport and energy services with reasonable equity?

The third - high population - scenario (32 million people by 2050) has continuing growth as its key element with an eventual population of 50 million by 2100. While resource use and environmental quality issues are more challenging than in the other scenarios, some ageing issues are proportionally less important. Under this scenario, Melbourne and Sydney become megacities of 10 million people by 2100.

The CSIRO report was comissioned by the Department of Immigration, and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs. The report can be downloaded here (pdf, 343Kb).